Today we have a loaded 14-game MLB slate to choose from, featuring a plethora of day sweats. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-110, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Rangers (52-56) won the opener 6-3, cashing as -115 road favorites. Then the Cardinals (55-52) clawed back with an 8-1 win yesterday, cashing as +105 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers turn to lefty Andrew Heaney (4-10, 3.77 ERA) and the Cardinals tap righty Michael McGreevy, who is making his MLB debut. McGreevy went 5-7 with a 4.45 ERA in AAA Memphis prior to his call up. This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -105 odds. We’ve seen the line creep up slightly in favor of Texas (-105 to -110), signaling respected money backing the road team to earn the series win. The Rangers are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off win are 352-237 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 156-131 (54%) with a 1.5% ROI. Heaney has a 2.66 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 20.1 innings pitched. The Cardinals are hitting .227 against lefties this season, ranking 29th in MLB.
4:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-115, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Red Sox (56-50) won the opener 14-7, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. Then the Mariners (57-52) bounced back with a 10-6 win last night, cashing as -120 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Mariners hand the ball to righty George Kirby (8-7, 3.03 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Brayan Bello (10-5, 5.27 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -120 road favorite and Boston a +100 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen the line dip slightly away from the Mariners (-120 to -115) and toward the Red Sox (+100 to -105). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, we know based upon the 5-cent adjustment that smart money is siding with Boston at a home coin-flip price. The Red Sox have the better offense, hitting .260 with 519 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .219 with 429 runs scored. Boston also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Kirby has a 3.47 ERA on the road compared to 2.52 at home. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Bello’s five July starts. Boston is hitting .264 against righties, 2nd best in MLB. Seattle is hitting .219 against righties, ranking 29th.
8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (-130, 7)
The Padres (58-51) came from behind in thrilling fashion to win last night’s series opener 6-5 in extra innings, cashing as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers (63-45) start lefty Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.50 ERA) and the Padres go with righty Dylan Cease (10-8, 3.50 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -120 home favorite and Los Angeles a +110 road dog. The public is happy to take the Dodgers in a plus-money bounce back spot. However, despite 56% of moneyline bets taking Los Angeles we’ve actually seen this line move further toward San Diego -120 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Padres, with pros fading the trendy dog Dodgers and instead laying the short chalk with San Diego at home. The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Cease is coming off a no-hitter against the Nationals and has posted a 2.48 ERA in five July starts. The Padres are 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .287 with a 3.13 ERA. The Dodgers are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .250 with a 4.50 ERA.
