Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-155, 9.5)
The Yankees (50-41) dominated last night’s series opener 10-3, cruising as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (48-43) send out righty Logan Evans (3-2, 2.96 ERA) and the Yankees counter with righty Cam Schlitter, who is making his MLB debut. Schlitter is one of New York’s top pitching prospects and has gone 6-6 with a 2.82 ERA in the minors this season prior to his call up.
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 home favorite and Seattle a +125 road dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down on the Yankees to post another win in the Bronx, steaming New York up from -145 to -155. Some books are even up to -160.
At Circa, the Yankees are only receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 58% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers out in Vegas backing the Bronx Bombers.
Home favorites off a win who made the playoffs the previous season are 192-96 (67%) with a 6% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more in their favor are 137-69 (67%) with a 5% ROI.
New York has the more explosive bats, hitting .256 with 143 homers and 472 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .247 with 120 homers and 405 runs scored.
Evans is 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA on the road compared to 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA at home.
7:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-160, 10) at Baltimore Orioles
The Mets (53-39) won last night’s Interleague series opener 7-6 in extra innings, taking care of business as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets go with lefty David Peterson (6-4, 3.18 ERA) and the Orioles tap righty Tomoyuki Sugano (6-5, 4.44 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -145 road favorite and Baltimore a +125 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the road chalk and have gotten down hard on New York, steaming the Mets up from -145 to -160.
At Circa, New York is receiving 64% of moneyline bets and a hefty 90% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split out in Vegas.
Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 with at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 30-17 (64%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Mets are 42-22 (66%) with a 4% ROI as a favorite, the 6th best chalk team in MLB. When favored and receiving at least 10-cents of line movement in their direction the Mets improve to 17-7 (71%) with a 10% ROI.
New York has additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win. Interleague road favorites -150 or more are 33-16 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Mets have the more productive offense, hitting .246 with 121 homers and 409 runs scored compared to the Orioles hitting .239 with 108 homers and 377 runs scored.
New York is hitting .249 against righties (12th in MLB). Meanwhile, Baltimore is hitting just .222 against lefties (24th).
7:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 7.5)
The Cardinals (49-43) took last night’s series opener 4-2, coming through as -240 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Nationals (37-54) hand the ball to left MacKenzie Gore (3-8, 3.11 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to righty Andre Pallante (5-4, 4.10 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals laying short chalk at home, steaming St. Louis up from -120 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Cardinals to post another win at home.
Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning game one are 106-60 (64%) with a 3% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more in their favor are 137-69 (67%) with a 5% ROI.
St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .251 with 93 homers and 418 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .247 with 87 homers and 399 runs scored.
St. Louis is 27-17 at home. Washington is 19-26 on the road.
