Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action with 15-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox (-165, 7)
These Interleague foes split Tuesday’s doubleheader, with the Nationals (20-21) taking the opener 6-3 as -110 road favorites and then the White Sox (13-30) winning the nightcap 4-0 as +105 home dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals turn to lefty Patrick Corbin (1-3, 5.91 ERA) and the White Sox trot out fellow southpaw Garrett Crochet (3-4, 4.63 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Washington a +115 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the Nats at a plus money price. However, despite 60% of bets taking Washington we’ve actually seen this line skyrocket toward Chicago -135 to -165. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the White Sox, with pros fading the trendy dog Nats and instead laying the chalk with the unpopular home favorite. Interleague favorites off a win, like the White Sox here, are 52-35 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8 to 7. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites are 125-76 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season. Fading Patrick Corbin has resulted in a 72-40 (64%) record with an 8% ROI since 2020. Corbin has a 3.63 ERA at home but a 7.46 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Crochet has a 2.83 ERA at home compared to 7.50 ERA on the road. Crochet has only given up one earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts (6-3 win over Cleveland and 5-1 win over St. Louis).
6:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 7.5)
The Phillies (30-13) have taken the first two games of this four-game home and home series, winning the opener 5-4 in extra innings as a -105 road dog and then winning again yesterday 4-0 as -120 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Mets (19-22) hand the ball to lefty Joey Lucchesi, who is making his first start of the season after going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 2023. Meanwhile, the Phillies counter with fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez (7-0, 1.50 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -180 home favorite and New York a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the heavy chalk and have gotten down hard on the red-hot Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -180 to -200. The Phillies are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. The Phillies have a big edge at the plate, hitting .259 with 50 homers and 222 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .233 with 41 homers and only 172 runs scored. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8 to 7.5. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites are 125-76 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Phillies are hitting .267 vs lefties this season, 5th-best in MLB. The Mets are hitting .224, ranking 18th. Philadelphia is a perfect 8-0 when Suarez starts. The Phillies are 15-7 at home.
7:20 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-190, 9)
The Braves (26-13) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 2-0 as -140 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-0 as -190 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Cubs (24-19) start righty Javier Assad (3-0, 1.70 ERA) and the Braves go with fellow righty Charlie Morton (3-0, 3.14 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -165 home favorite and Chicago a +150 road dogs. Sharps seem to figure “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the wood with the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -165 to -190. The Braves are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets, indicating heavy public support but also respected wiseguy action in the form of a notable 25-cent steam move. Atlanta has the better offense, hitting .255 compared to .234 for Chicago. The Braves also have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Atlanta is 15-4 at home, the best home team in MLB. Chicago is 11-13 on the road. The Braves have the better bullpen as well, sporting an ERA of 3.26 compared to 4.50 for the Cubs. Atlanta is 25-10 (71%) as a favorite this season, tied for the 3rd-best chalk record in MLB.
