Today a new month begins with a 15-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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4:07 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series. The Angels (11-19) won the opener 6-5, cashing as +120 home dogs. Then the Phillies (20-11) bounced back with a 7-5 come-from-behind win last night, taking care of business as -175 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, Philadelphia starts righty Zack Wheeler (2-3, 1.93 ERA) and Los Angeles counters with lefty Patrick Sandoval (1-4, 6.33 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -165 road favorite and the Angels a +150 home dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -200. Philadelphia is receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. The Phillies have the better bats (hitting .256 vs .241) and betting pitching staff (team ERA 3.44 vs 5.08). Road favorites are 95-64 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season. Interleague favorites off a win are 37-22 (63%) with a 6% ROI. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), which the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. The Phillies are hitting .271 vs lefties this season, 6th best in MLB. Philadelphia is 10-5 on the road. Los Angeles is just 4-10 at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox (-130, 8.5)
The Red Sox (17-13) took last night’s Interleague series opener 4-0, cashing as +120 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (14-16) start righty Daulton Jefferies (0-1, 22.50 ERA) and the Red Sox send out righty Kutter Crawford (1-1, 1.35 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on Boston at a cheap home price, steaming the Red Sox up from -110 to -130. Boston is receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public support and heavy wiseguy action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Red Sox have the better bats (hitting .250 vs .241) and far better bullpen (ERA 3.41 vs 5.37). Boston has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Interleague favorites off a win are 37-22 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Red Sox are +37 in run differential. The Giants are -21. Boston is 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .301 with a 2.35 ERA. San Francisco is 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .231 with a 4.20 ERA.
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 8.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Dodgers (19-13) won the opener 8-4, taking care of business as -140 road favorites. Then the Diamondbacks (14-17) clawed back with a 4-3 win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s series finale, Los Angeles taps righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2-1, 3.54 ERA) and Arizona goes with lefty Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 2.77 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Diamondbacks a +115 home dog. Pros have jumped on the Dodgers laying relatively short chalk, driving Los Angeles up from -125 to -145. The Dodgers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided Pro and Joe support in their favor. Favorites off a loss, like the Dodgers here, are 117-77 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Road favorites are 95-64 (60%) with a 6% ROI. Los Angeles has the better bats (hitting .271 vs .250) and better bullpen (ERA 3.66 vs 4.41). The Dodgers are hitting .281 against lefties this season, the best in MLB. Los Angeles is 7-3 over their last 10 games, hitting .292 with a 2.22 ERA. Arizona is 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .225 with a 4.29 ERA.
