Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-145, 9) at Miami Marlins
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Marlins (19-28) won the opener 8-7, walking off in the bottom of the 9th as +145 home dogs. Then the Cubs (29-20) bounced back with a resounding 14-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -150 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Cade Horton (2-0, 6.00 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow righty Max Meyer (3-4, 4.47 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying short chalk, steaming Chicago up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in over 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy lopsided Pro and Joe support in favor of Chicago to earn a win today and take the series.
Sweet spot non-division favorites -135 to -160 are 88-54 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .261 with 68 homers and 291 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .248 with 45 homers and 196 runs scored. Chicago is hitting .282 over their last ten games compared to the Marlins hitting .248.
The Cubs are hitting .257 against righties (5th in MLB) while the Marlins are hitting .247 (14th).
Chicago is 20-10 (67%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite this season, including 7-3 (70%) with a 20% ROI as a road favorite.
Meyer has a 7.16 ERA in three May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched.
Chicago is 14-10 on the road. Miami is 13-14 at home.
1:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-155, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Astros (25-23) took the opener 4-3, cashing as +120 road dogs. Then the Rays (22-26) clawed back with 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Astros go with righty Hunter Brown (6-2, 1.43 ERA) and the Rays send out fellow righty Taj Bradley (3-3, 4.80 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +115 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Astros, steaming Houston up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous year, like the Astros here, are 42-23 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season. Sweet spot non-division favorites -135 to -160 are 88-54 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous year are 165-87 (66%) with a 5% ROI.
The Astros are 16-6 (73%) with a 32% ROI after a loss this season, the second best “bounce back” team in baseball.
Brown is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA on the road this season. Houston is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Bradley has a 5.28 ERA in three May starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 15.1 innings pitched.
10:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Diamondbacks (26-23) won the opener 9-5, cashing as +130 road dogs. Then the Dodgers (30-19) bounced back with a 4-3 win in extra innings last night, taking care of business as -235 home favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Diamondbacks start righty Corbin Burnes (3-1, 2.56 ERA) and the Dodgers rebuttal with fellow righty Dustin May (1-1, 4.43 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +110 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Dodgers to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Los Angeles up from -130 to -145.
At Circa, the Dodgers are receiving 60% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers laying the home chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Dodgers here, are 112-57 (66%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-76 (67%) with an 8% ROI.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .268 with 80 homers and 281 runs scored compared to the Diamondbacks hitting .255 with 69 homers and 255 runs scored.
Burnes has a 3.80 ERA on the road compared to 1.48 at home. Meanwhile, May has a 3.38 ERA at home compared to 5.40 on the road.
The Dodgers have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.06 compared to 5.32 for the Diamondbacks (4th worst in MLB).
