The MLB postseason kicks off today with a winner-take-all one game playoff between the Red Sox and Yankees. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the action is flowing for today's AL Wild Card showdown…
8:08 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (92-70) at Boston Red Sox (92-70)
Baseball's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight, with the winner of this one-game Wild Card playoff advancing to take on the Rays in the ALDS. Both teams finished with identical 92-70 records, eight games back of the AL East champion Rays. New York finished %plussign% 42 in run differential while Boston finished %plussign% 80. The Red Sox won the regular season series 10-9, although the Yankees just swept a 3-game series at Fenway just about a week ago. The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .261 (3rd in MLB) while the Yankees are hitting .237 (23rd). On the flip side, New York has had superior pitching, posting a 3.74 ERA (6th), versus Boston's 4.26 ERA (15th).
In tonight's one game playoff, the Yankees hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.23 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and Boston a %plussign% 105 home dog. It appears as though both Pros and Joes are laying the short chalk with the Yankees, pushing New York up from -115 to -120. Since 2012 when MLB adopted the one-game playoff, favorites are 10-6 (63 percent). Boston has value as a contrarian home dog in a heavily bet primetime game. On September 24th, the Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-3 at Fenway, with Eovaldi giving up 7-runs in 2.2 innings pitched while Cole got the win (6 innings, 3 runs, 6 strikeouts).
We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total opened at 8.5 and sharps immediately hit the under 8.5 with the hook, dropping the line down to 8. When the total is 8 or more in the MLB playoffs, the under is roughly 54 percent over the past decade. The forecast calls for a chilly 60 degrees and 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from dead center at Fenway. Both of these teams are "under" teams. The Yankees were 89-69 to the under in the regular season and the Red Sox were 85-74 to the under. The under is 8-2 the last 10 games between these teams.
On the eve of the MLB playoffs, here are the updated futures odds across the market…
World Series Winner (odds via BetMGM)
Dodgers 400
Astros 475
Giants 600
Rays 650
White Sox 700
Brewers 800
Yankees, Braves 1200
Red Sox 1400
Cardinals 2500
Odds to win AL
Astros 225
Rays 275
White Sox 300
Yankees 550
Red Sox 600
Odds to win NL
Dodgers 200
Giants 250
Brewers 325
Braves 500
Cardinals 1000
Series Prices
Brewers -140 vs Braves 115
Astros -125 vs White Sox 105
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