Tuley Takes Today 9/1: Best Bets for Thursday in college football Week 1, MLB


After feeling really strange all day Tuesday as we moved on from the Point Spread Weekly era here at VSiN (note: either Monday or Tuesday’s version of this column for the full explanation of how my former PSW piece where I give my “takes” on the full NFL card each week will be found in these daily “Tuley’s Takes Today” columns starting next Wednesday).
As for this Wednesday, I was mostly doing chores around the house as I won’t have much time once next week rolls around.
I watched some U.S. Open tennis during the day, but it was worth the wait later in the afternoon (Vegas TIme) to win our Best Bet of the day on the Red Sox 1st 5 innings %plussign% 110 as they exploded for 5 runs in the top of the 3rd inning and led 5-2 at the end of 5 innings to cash for us. The Red Sox also went on the win the game 8-5. We did, however, lose our other MLB play earlier on the Rangers 1st 5 %plussign% 110, but still came out ahead overall.
Let’s recap the rest of Wednesday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more plays on Thursday, including the start of College Football Week 1 (after last week’s limited schedule in the so-called Week 0).

Wednesday’s recaps


MLB: Faves went 10-5 Thursday with upsets by the Angels (%plussign% 172 in 3-2 win vs. Yankees on Shohei Ohtani's 3-run HR off Gerrit Cole in 6th inning), Mariners (%plussign% 160 in 5-3 win at Tigers), Orioles (%plussign% 155 n 4-0 win at Guardians), Red Sox (%plussign% 110 in 6-5 win at Twins) and Nationals (-102 in 5-1 win vs. A's). Road teams went 9-6. Unders 10-5 

More MLB: Faves lead 1,154-766 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 30 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back to 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,026-922 (52.7 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 958-887-102 (51.9 percent).

Thursday’s Takes

Louisiana Tech %plussign% 20.5 at Missouri: Last week, we lost our Best Bet on Wyoming %plussign% at Illinois (and won our 2nd play on Vanderbilt-Hawaii Over 53.5) for 1-1 start to the college football season. This game is reminiscent of Wyoming-Illinois with a Power 5 conference team hosting a Group of 5 team in an assumed mismatch. I was on the side last week in Illinois’ 38-6 rout, but hope Louisiana Tech has a better showing here. Missouri’s defense allowed 6.1 yards per play (ranking No. 105 in FBC) last season. Granted, that was against mostly SEC competition, but LaTech should improve under new head coach Sonny Cumbie, who was the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech last year and interim head coach for five games, including beating Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl. Cumbie also brings in QB Matthew Downing from TCU, where Cumbie was in 2019. Basically, I just thik this line should be closer to 10 or 13, so let’s take the added points.

Early takes on Friday's games: I’ll write more about these Friday is I stick with the plays, but I recommend grabbing Illinois %plussign% 1.5 vs. Indiana and Old Dominion %plussign% 7 vs. Virginia Teach as both lines have been dropping and they’re both about to become unbeatable if they drop any further.

Rangers 1st 5 %plussign% 125 at Red Sox: We won with the Red Sox Wednesday and lost with the Rangers, but we’re back on the Rangers with starting pitcher Glenn Otto (6-8, 4.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) as he’s comparable to Boston’s Rich Hill, so we’ll take the plus-money in a coin-flip bet.

Good luck today (and every day!).