Tuley’s Takes: MLB Championship Series Best Bets:
We’ve really enjoyed the MLB playoffs here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Now we’re down to the Final Four with the MLB Championship Series.
The Blue Jays and Dodgers only needed four games apiece to dispose of the Yankees and Phillies, respectively, while the Mariners-Tigers and Cubs-Brewers series going the full five games.
With the Mariners outlasting the Tigers 3-2 late Friday night in 15 innings (classic pitchers’ duel in a winner-take-all game), I’ll give my “takes” on the Mariners-Blue Jays in the ALCS and then add the NLCS after the Cubs-Brewers Game 5 series concludes Saturday night.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Series price: Blue Jays -135 / Mariners +115
Game 1: Blue Jays -160 / Mariners +140 (Over/Under 7.5, Over -120 / Under +100)
Tuley’s Take: The Blue Jays had the better regular-season record (by four wins) to earn home-field advantage in the ALCS with the meeting of the Junior Circuit’s top two teams. They also won the season series 4-2—though the last meeting was five months ago in May—so we get why Toronto is a decent-sized series favorite.
They also sure look like the better overall team, especially as they didn’t show any rust from their first-round bye and dominated the Yankees by scores of 10-1, 13-1 and 5-2 with the only loss being 9-6 in Game 3. That’s an average of 8.5 runs per game to 4.8 allowed.
I get that the Mariners had a much harder time, averaging just four runs per game (though they had to face Tarik Skubal twice, so kudos for overcoming that 100-mph speed bump) and also allowing 4 runs per game in a very even series that went 15 innings to decide a classic Game 5. Despite losing the season series, I believe the Mariners can turn the tables in the ALCS.
So, I’ll take the Mariners at +115 on the series price and also +140 in Game 1. There’s particular value there as I think the oddsmakers have jacked up the Game 1 price (especially relative to the series price) because of the conventional wisdom out there that the Mariners went through a tough series and had to use all pitchers available just to survive Game 5 while the Blue Jays were able to set their rotation by finishing their series more than two days earlier.
But as much as I like the Mariners, this should be a long series that goes at least six games, and I see value on both teams as underdogs. So, after betting the Mariners in Game 1, I expect I’ll be on them again in Game 2, but then expect to bet on the Blue Jays at plus-money in the Seattle games as they should have more than a 50/50 chance to win those road games. If this series goes at least six games, I could see dogs going 4-2, though we’d only need to go 3-3 to be profitable with those individual games.
It should be a fun series to bet and watch.
Best Bets: Mariners +115 to win series and +140 in Game 1, plus anytime as underdog in series, but also Blue Jays when dogs.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -215 / Brewers +185
Game 1: Dodgers -147 / Brewers +132 (Over/Under 7.5, Over -120 / Under +100)
Tuley’s Take: It’s not surprising that the lower-seeded Dodgers are favored here. They’re obviously loaded and should be favored. However, I don’t think they should be favored as much as they are, so I’m probably again going to take the underdog in every game of the series, starting with the Brewers as home dogs in Game 1.
Why do I like the Brewers? Well, there was a time during their 14-game winning streak in August that they were playing better than anyone in baseball, but this is actually more of a fade of the Dodgers. I mean, they’re a “cream rises to the top” type of team, but they haven’t been as dominant. They certainly hit for more power than the Brewers, but Milwaukee can play small ball better and manufacture runs – and they did hit seven homers in the divisional series against the Cubs..
Back in the summer, the Brewers actually swept the Dodgers 6-0 in July, even before their 14-game streak. I know chalk bettors will say that was mid-season and not indicative of how the Dodgers are playing now, but I still believe the 6-0 wasn’t a fluke (even if four were one-score games) and we can get the Brewers to cash a few games and put them in position to win the series (remember, Games 6 and 7, if necessary, will be back in Milwaukee). Unlike the ALCS, I don’t expect the Dodgers will be dogs in any game, and I’ll be checking the +1.5 run line on the Brewers in the road games in L.A. as we might get plus-money.
Best Bets: Brewers +185 to win series and +132 in Game 1 and any game as dogs.
