Tuley’s Takes: MLB Division Series Best Bets:
We hope you had as much fun in the Wild Card Round as we did in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We have three of the series go to decisive Game 3s on Thursday, including my Cubbies’ advance to the divisional playoffs. My picks in my Wild Card preview column didn’t fare too well as I lost Game 1 bets on the Guardians and Reds (and Game 2 on Cincy) while winning with the Red Sox +115 in their 3-1 victory in Game 1 against the Yankees. It was tough sledding for underdog bettors as favorites went 9-2 in the round, with the only upset being the Tigers beating the Guardians in Game 3.
I fared better with totals as we swept 3-0 in the Red Sox-Yankees series staying Under as they went 7-3-1 overall in the round. I did lose one Over in the Tigers-Guardians opener, so that was a misstep as I usually look to Unders in the postseason. I thought I saw value on the Over as oddmakers made the O/U 6, but it wasn’t low enough in the Tigers’ 2-1 win.
Anyway, we move on to the divisional playoffs with all four series starting Saturday.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series price: Brewers -120 / Cubs +100
Game 1: Brewers -148 / Cubs +134 (Over/Under 7)
Tuley’s Take: My self-proclaimed homerism gets another test here after I passed on the Cubs in the Wild Card round. Of course, they were favored over the Padres. You know me, so I’m sure it’s no surprise that I’m on them as underdogs here. They’re even-money dogs in the series and an average of +134 in Game 1 against Freddy Peralta, with Cubs manager Craig Counsell likely going with an opener or bullpen game.
(BREAKING NEWS: while finishing this article Friday afternoon – just like with my stream-of-consciousness NFL “takes” column this week with the 49ers getting increasingly more points on Thursday Night Football – it was announced Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs on three days’ rest, which I’m fine with as well). These teams are pretty even as we saw during the regular season (the Cubs did win the season series 7-6). Frankly, I believe the only reason the Brewers are favored is because they won the division as the “better team” and have home field (not that big of a deal in a five-game series unless it goes the full five games). Plus, they have the supposed advantage with the first-round bye and being able to set their pitching rotation.
But we’ve seen plenty of times where extra rest is more like extra rust, and we often like the team that has kept playing. The argument can be made that the Cubs had the better overall regular season, as it was just one stretch in the summer when they were slumping and the Brewers were hot, including a 14-game winning streak from Aug. 1-16 that came after winning two of three vs. the Cubs, turning a six-game Chicago lead into a nine-game Milwaukee lead.
Best Bets: Cubs +134 in Game 1 and +100 in the series, plus any game as dogs, including a decisive Game 5 in Milwaukee if it goes the distance.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Series price: Yankees -150 / Blue Jays +130
Game 1: Blue Jays -118 / Yankees +108(Over/Under 8)
Tuley’s Take: Here’s another divisional matchup between divisional rivals. Again, I’ll take the team coming off a series win against the division winner with a week of rest/rust. Actually, the Yankees are the series favorite (as they’ll be bigger chalk in their home games in the Bronx, plus probably Game 2 with Max Fried on the mound). I have to admit the Blue Jays are tempting at +130, but I’ll take the Yankees in Game 1 and any games as dogs. I don’t expect to make many bets in this series, though after going 3-0 with Unders in the Yanks’ series against Boston, I’ll lean that way here, especially in games where they’re favored. The total is 8 runs in Game 1, though the oddsmakers have shaded it to the Under at -115 to -120, so shop around for the best price (as always)
Best Bets: Yankees +108 in Game 1 and any game as dogs, plus lean to Unders.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Series price: Dodgers -130 / Phillies +110
Game 1: Phillies -117 / Dodgers +107 (Over/Under 7)
Tuley’s Take: This is the series I’m looking forward to the most (except for the Cubs, though that’s more as a fan). Even though I lost two bets on the Reds in the Wild Card round in L.A. (They did battle back in Game 1 and actually jumped out to a 2-0 lead in Game 2, but the Dodgers were too good.) I’m not gonna avoid fading the Dodgers again. The defending champs are obviously loaded (you don’t need me to tell you that) and the lukewarm 4-1 favorites to repeat, but the Phillies match up very well with a lineup that is built for the postseason, led by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. I also like the Phillies’ southpaw starters in Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo. I’ll pass Philadelphia in Game 1 with Sanchez vs. Shohei Ohtani, not because I fear Ohtani but because the Phillies are favored. I’ll just hope they get the series bet off to a winning start.
Best Bets: Phillies +110 to win series and any game as underdogs.
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Series price: Mariners -180 / Tigers +160
Game 1: Mariners -210 / Tigers +190 (Over/Under 7)
Tuley’s Take: I’m more of a National League guy because of my Cubs fandom and I play in an NL-only fantasy league, but I was cheering all summer for the Mariners as I needed them to go Over 85.5 wins for my eventual first-place finish in the 2025 Baseball Season Wins Challenge at the Westgate SuperBook. The Mariners were an exciting team to watch with Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, etc. and I’m not going to fade them here with the Tigers, In fact, I’ll be looking to take them in individual games as long as they’re underdogs, which could happen in Game 2 vs, Tarik Skubal or in Games 3 or 4 in Detroit.
Best Bets: Mariners in any game as underdogs.
Straight-up predictions to win series: Cubs in 4, Yankees in 5, Phillies in 5, Mariners in 4.
