Tuley’s Takes: MLB Divisional Series Best Bets and Predictions:
Baseball has been very good to me here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Just like our “dog or pass” philosophy working like a charm this NFL season, underdogs went 6-3 straight-up in the MLB wild-card round, and I swept my plays posted here on the Tigers +130 in Game 1 at the Astros and +150 in the series, plus the Mets +125 in Game 1 at the Brewers and +115 in the series. The “pass” part of “dog or pass” worked well as we avoided losing on the Braves vs. the Padres as they were swept 2-0, though we wish we had jumped on the Royals in their sweep of the Orioles. Hopefully some dog disciples picked up some extra profits there as well. Let’s keep it rolling with some MLB Divisional Series best bets!
We’ll do the same thing here in trying to find the most live underdogs in this round. See you again for the league championship series.
Top MLB Resources:
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Series price: Guardians -120/Tigers +100
Game 1 (1:08 p.m. ET): Guardians -148/Tigers +135
This is a tough call, as we were obviously thrilled to be on the Tigers with the awesome Tarik Skubal as a juicy underdog in Game 1 against the Astros. We let our series bet ride and were rewarded with a sweep. The quandary now is that a ton of people have joined us on the Detroit bandwagon, and they’re very much a dreaded public underdog that we usually try to avoid.
I mentioned that a “bullpen game” wouldn’t be a deterrent in backing the Tigers. That’s just what manager AJ Hinch did in Game 2, with Tyler Horton pitching a scoreless first inning and seven pitchers combining for a five-hitter in the Tigers’ 5-2 win.
It was just announced Friday afternoon that Horton will again start a bullpen game in Game 1 on Saturday. I guess they want Skubal to get his regular rest and start Game 2 on Monday (though they’re also saying he would pitch Game 5, if necessary, next Saturday on four days’ rest).
Anyway, I did make the point in my wild-card preview about the bullpen being one of the Tigers’ strengths, so I’ll take them in Game 1 at +135, especially since I’m not sure it’s much of an advantage for the Guardians to be “resting” so much as it could be “rusting.”
I’m hoping to get Skubal as a road dog as I’ll back the Tigers in any game in the series as a dog, as well as +100 for the series (though that is a depressed price for a No. 6 seed, speaking to what I said about Detroit being a public dog).
MLB Divisional Series Best Bets: Tigers +100 in series, plus +135 in Game 1 and any game as underdogs
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Series price: Phillies -195/Mets +170
Game 1 (2:32 p.m. ET): Phillies -182/Mets +165
The Mets also came through for us in the first round, and Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso give them a shot, but I’m passing on the series price of +170 here. Just because you cash on a team one round doesn’t mean you have to keep betting them every round if you’re not getting betting value. As I often write, we’re betting numbers here, not teams.
However, I am human and admit to a bias here, as two of my favorite current players are former Cub Kyle Schwarber and Las Vegas native Bryce Harper. It’s hard for me to cheer against them, but when I step back and take an objective look I still have to say the Phillies have the edge on both offense and pitching, especially starters.
As my VSiN colleague Adam Burke wrote in his series preview (and he also likes the Phillies to win the series), the Phillies won’t have to use many of the marginal players that hurt their overall team stats in a five-game series, so the Phillies’ best if clearly superior to the Mets’ best.
Will we get the Phillies as road underdogs in Games 3 or 4 in New York? If so, that’s the only bets I see myself making here.
MLB Divisional Series Best Bets: Pass, unless Phillies plus-money on the road
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Series price: Yankees -210/Royals +180
Game 1 (2:32 p.m. ET): Yankees -190/Royals +170
As stated above, the Royals were the dog that got away in the wild-card round. I didn’t expect their pitching to shut down the Orioles like that (1-0 and 2-1 at Camden Yards).
I’m sure some readers are expecting me to back them here, but I’m sticking to my original handicap and don’t believe the Royals – who had the worst offensive stats in the whole majors down the stretch – can keep up with the Yankees’ loaded lineup. I don’t see them being able to pull out more than one 1-0 or 2-1 win in this series. And I would like their chances even less if the Yankees pitch around Bobby Witt Jr. That’s what I would do (the old Greg Maddux vs. Barry Bonds strategy).
Even though the Royals swept the two games in Baltimore, they did hit much better at home during most of the year, so I’m more inclined to see if I can get them as home dogs in Game 3 or 4, if necessary.
MLB Divisional Series Best Bets: Pass, though possibly Royals as home dogs (especially in Game 3 if down 2-0)
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -135/Padres +115
Game 1 (2:32 p.m. ET): Dodgers -130/Padres +120
Shohei Ohtani is obviously the biggest star, but the Padres have plenty of star power, making this the marquee matchup of this round (though I’m sure those with an East Coast Bias will say it’s Mets-Phillies) and fitting that it’s played near Hollywood.
This isn’t a love story between these two rivals. The Dodgers have had much more success in Southern California, but the Padres did beat the Dodgers 3-1 in the 2022 divisional playoffs, so that has really ramped up the rivalry (hard to call it one if one team always dominates the other).
I’ve lost a couple of future bets on the Padres the last few years as I thought they were on the verge of a World Series run. I didn’t bet them this year (though I did cash on their Over/Under Season Win Total), but I still believe they’re ready to get over the proverbial hump.
And even though Ohtani is the biggest hump/obstacle, San Diego catches LA at a good time, as the Padres actually have the better (aka healthier) pitching staff. I see this as pick ’’em (I’m not gonna say the Padres should be favored, but I do think it’s telling that oddsmakers aren’t offering too juicy of a price). One could say (again, not that I’m going to say it) that bookies are begging chalk bettors to lay the relatively low price on the Dodgers.
I’ll take the Padres in the series and any time as underdogs.
MLB Divisional Series Best Bets: Padres +115 in series and any game as dogs
