Tuley’s Takes – MLB League Championship Series Best Bets and Predictions:
The divisional playoffs didn’t treat us as well as the wild-card series here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re excited about the two MLB league championship series.
Our series picks on the Padres +120 over the Dodgers and Tigers +100 over the Guardians both led 2-1 after three games of their respective five-game series, so we were doing well on individual games, but we were ultimately let down as neither was able to complete the series upsets.
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After a lot of people complaining about how “the playoff format is unfair to the teams with first-round byes”, three of the four series favorites (the top two seeds in each league) prevailed in the divisional round. Faves went 11-6 in the games with 1 pick ’em (Phillies at Mets in Game 3) against my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines (posted nightly on Twitter/X @ViewFromVegas) while home teams led 10-8 and Overs led 10-7-1.
For those curious, chalk now leads 14-12 overall after underdogs were 6-3 in the wild-card round, while road teams still lead 14-13 overall and Over/Unders are right at .500 at 13-13-1.
The only dog to win a divisional playoff series was the Mets, who we bet in the wild-card round but unfortunately passed against the Phillies. They now take on the Dodgers in the NLCS, starting on Sunday. The Yankees and Guardians, the two top seeds in the junior circuit, begin the ALCS on Monday.
I’m sure it won’t surprise anyone that I like both underdogs in this round, though we always try to be selective in the dogs we back, and, as much as we regretted not sticking with the Mets last round, we were proud that we passed on the Royals against the Yankees.
Let’s look at the two series, starting with the Game 1s.
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Series price: Dodgers -180/Mets +160
National League Championship Series Game 1 (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT): Dodgers -155/Mets +140
A lot of people are calling the Mets a “team of destiny,” and I kinda have to admit I’m buying into it as well. As stated above, we knew they were live in the wild-card round and took out the NL Central champion Brewers by winning 2-of-3 in Milwaukee. I wish I had continued to ride them vs. the Phillies, but they certainly impressed me again by dominating the series 3-1.
When I took the Padres against the Dodgers, I said LA wasn’t as dominant, especially with question marks on the pitching staff. I guess they proved me wrong, especially shutting out the Padres over the last 24 innings, but I’m willing to fade them again with the red-hot Mets team.
I mean, despite being a wild-card team, they were the best team in the NL the last two months. As you’ve probably heard many times lately, with people complaining about the playoff format, it’s always been that the best team doesn’t always win the World Series, but more often, the team that gets hottest at the right time in October. I’m banking on that.
Kodai Senga starts Game 1 for the Mets against Jack Flaherty and is more of a “starter-plus” as manager Carlos Mendoza said he expects to just go three innings after going just two innings in Game 1 against the Phillies. That worked out well with a “bullpen game” and I’m trusting Mendoza here to put us in the best position to steal Game 1.
My VSiN colleague Adam Burke points out that the Mets have the starting edge with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana, so I’ll be backing the Mets anytime they’re underdogs in the series, but because the Dodgers the stronger bullpen and are a danger to rally late, the best bets of all might be the Mets in the First 5 Innings, especially with those starters.
MLB League Championship Series Best Bets: Mets +160 in series, plus +140 in Game 1 and any games as dogs (also playing Mets as First 5 Inning dogs)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Series price: Yankees -180/Guardians +160
American League Championship Series Game 1 (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET): Yankees -155/Guardians +140
The Tigers looked like another potential “team of destiny,” but the cream rose to the top as the Guardians won the last two games of the series, including beating presumptive AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in Game 5.
The Guardians are another live dog at +140 in Monday’s Game 1 (as of Saturday evening, just a few hours after advancing) and +160 for the series. They’re at a little of a disadvantage as they had to have “all hands on deck” in Game 5 and used eight pitchers, including closer Emmanuel Clase having to get a six-out save.
But the Guardians didn’t win 92 games just because they had the woeful White Sox in their division. The Yankees obviously still have the biggest names in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but I’ll take Jose Ramirez (39 HR, 118 RBI) and Josh Naylor (31 HR, 108 RBI) and the rest of a solid lineup, highlighted in the last series by Steven Kwan, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and of course Lane Thomas hitting the big grand slam to send them to New York.
The one thing I fear is that Judge went only 2-for-13 against the Royals and the Yankees still cruised, but the Guardians have a ton of fresh right-handed relievers to throw at him, so I’m sticking with them. It comes down to that we just need one of our two series dogs to come through for a nice profit since the Dodgers and Yankees are overpriced (in my humble opinion).
MLB League Championship Series Best Bets: Guardians +160 in series, plus +135 in Game 1 and any games as dogs
