Tuley’s Takes: MLB World Series Best Bets:
The World Series is finally here (in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we’re not sure why we’ve had to wait since Monday, when the ALCS went the full seven games before the Blue Jays outlasted the Mariners to take on the Dodgers.
We have the matchup we probably should have foreseen all along. The Blue Jays had the best record in the American League. While the Dodgers weren’t the No. 1 seed in the National League and didn’t have a first-round bye, they are the defending World Series champions and the preseason betting favorite and are right where they expected to be.
The Fall Classic starts in Toronto on Friday and Saturday nights and then moves to Los Angeles for Games 3-5 on Monday through Wednesday, with (if necessary) Games 6 and 7 back in Toronto next Friday and Saturday.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Series price: Dodgers -260 / Blue Jays +220
Game 1: Dodgers -150 / Blue Jays +135 (Over/Under 7.5, Over +100 / Under -120)
Tuley’s Take: Both teams will be well-rested with the four-day break from the Blue Jays clinching the ALCS and seven days since the Dodgers completed their sweep in the NLCS, and both teams will be able to set their starting rotations and set up their bullpens. So, there’s no real edge in the rest vs. rust debate, though if either has rust, I’d have to say it’s the Dodgers, as I’m sure they would have preferred to keep playing instead of sitting for a week.
The Dodgers are the better overall teams as the defending champs and have peaked at the right time like the championship team it is. We could go over all the stats but it comes down to the fact that these offenses are pretty equal while the Dodgers’ pitching has also come together at the right time to sweep the Reds 2-0 (allowed 4.5 runs per game but they coasted to easy wins in both), beat the No. 1 seeded Phillies 3-1 (allowed 3.75 per game, though more than half of the 15 runs came in the 8-2 loss in Game 3) and swept the Brewers 4-0 (allowed 1.0 per game, actually exactly 1 runs in each game for total domination).
However, I can’t see them shutting down the Blue Jays like that, no matter how many quality arms the Dodgers throw at them.
The series prices have been rising as it seems the whole world is seeing the Dodgers as unbeatable. You may be right, I may be crazy (early ’80s music reference), but with the Blue Jays available at more than 2-1 odds, I can’t help but think that if they played this series three times, the Blue Jays wouldn’t come out on top at least once.
As for Game 1 on Friday night, Toronto is starting rookie Trey Yesavage, who pitched 5 1/ 3 no-hit innings against the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS, got knocked around by the Mariners in Game 2 of the ALCS and bounced back with a strong 5 2/3 innings in the pivotal Game 6 elimination game. He faces L.A.’s Blake Snell with the Dodgers installed as -150 road chalk and the Blue Jays +135. That looks like more accurate odds for this matchup. (Yes, I realize the Dodgers will be bigger favorites at home and that’s why the series price is much higher) So, while I’m also making a smaller bet on the series price, I’m hoping to make more on the individual games (that’s what we did in the ALCS as we lost our series bet on the Mariners but won with the dogs in Games 1 and 2 with the Mariners, plus Games 3 and 4 as we advised flipping to the Blue Jays as road dogs. I’m planning to take the Blue Jays in every game in the series as dogs, though I might look to play the +1.5 run line in the games in L.A., especially at plus money.
Best Bets: Blue Jays +220 or better to win series, plus +135 in Game 1 and any game as dogs.
