Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY on DET-NYM GAME 1
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE NY METS GAME 1 (-142 vs DET), FADE DETROIT GAME 2 (+100 at NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-NYM GAME 1 and GAME 2 (o/u at 7.5 for both), PLAY UNDER in CLE-MIN (o/u at 7.5)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE NY METS GAME 1 (-142 vs. DET), FADE MINNESOTA (-155 vs. CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and an ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT GAME 2 (+100 at NYM), PLAY PITTSBURGH (-125 at WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher, went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, DETROIT
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long.
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 10-7 for +3.98 units.
System Matches: PLAY CHI WHITE SOX (+155 vs. KC), PLAY DETROIT GAME 1 (+120 at NYM) and GAME 2 (+100 at NYM)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 6-3 for +2.10 units).
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT GAME 1 (+120 at NYM) & GM 2 if win GM1
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2% (this 2024 season, they are 1-5 for -5.59 units).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+130 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1290-1692 (43.3%) for -175.22 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2913-2538 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -371.46 units and R.O.I. of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+105 vs. PIT), MINNESOTA (-155 vs CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 22-67 skid (-29.2 units, ROI -32.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 43-92 skid (-26.09 units, ROI: -19.3%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 53-116 (-48.60 units, ROI: -28.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 71-57 outright (+6.75 units, ROI: 5.3%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 130-105 run (+50.48 units, ROI: 21.5%).
System Matches: PLAY NY METS in GAME 1 (-135 vs DET)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 100-98 (+18.12 units, ROI: 9.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+130 at STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT GAME 1 +120 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-KC UNDER 8 (-0.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) MIAMI (0-7) at (954) ST LOUIS (3-4)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 15-6 (+7.30 units) within line range of -180 or worse in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-155 vs MIA)
(959) DETROIT (4-0) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (0-4) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 20-4 (+16.14 units) in the last 24 day game starts (including 12-0 (+13.25 units) in the last 12)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-142 vs DET)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
