The following are MLB betting trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (-192 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-130 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-122 vs SEA), TAMPA BAY (-162 at COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is OVER bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CLE-MIN (o/u at 7.5)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-170 vs SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-148 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-130 at PIT), CLEVELAND (+105 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-110 at CHC), TAMPA BAY (-162 at COL), BOSTON (-115 at LAA), HOUSTON (-105 at TEX)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI RL, PLAY DETROIT RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment.
System Matches: ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, BOSTON, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent.
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 9-3 for +2.78 units.

System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-218 vs. AZ), PLAY DETROIT (-192 vs OAK)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system.
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season, these big favorites are 3-4 for -5.20 units.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (-192 vs OAK)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long.
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2023 season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 13-13 for +1.24 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-105 at CIN), HOUSTON (-105 at TEX), SEATTLE (+102 at MIL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks.
I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season, they are 4-3 for +0.58 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6% (this 2024 season, they are 6-3 for +4.30 units).
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE CLEVELAND (+105 at MIN), TEXAS (-115 vs HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks.
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 8-6 for +0.38 units).
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-130 vs. CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1448-1355 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -176.24 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-218 vs. AZ), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. TOR), CINCINNATI (-115 vs. NYM)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1295-1699 (43.3%) for -177.54 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+114 at STL), HOUSTON (-105 at TEX), BOSTON (-115 at LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+110 at KC)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2920-2547 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -374.45 units and an R.O.I. of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-218 vs. AZ), PITTSBURGH (+110 vs. BAL), CINCINNATI (-115 vs. NYM), NY YANKEES (-155 vs. TOR), TEXAS (-115 vs. HOU), COLORADO (+136 vs. TB)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 820-701 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.88 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-125 vs CLE), PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-170 vs SD), PLAY WASHINGTON (+124 vs PHI)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit.
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 416-345 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.40 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.7%.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-170 vs. SD), PLAY LA ANGELS (-105 vs BOS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 22-69 skid (-31.2 units, ROI -34.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+114 at STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 43-94 skid (-28.09 units, ROI: -20.5%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+114 at STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 53-118 (-50.60 units, ROI: -29.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+114 at STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 71-59 outright (+4.75 units, ROI: 3.7%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+114 at STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 101-100 (+17.36 units, ROI: 8.6%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+114 at STL)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 58-60 (-26.53 units, ROI: -22.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+105 at MIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +180 (+30 diff), OAKLAND +160 (+21 diff), LA ANGELS -105 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -115 (+22 diff), ST LOUIS -135 (+25 diff), KANSAS CITY -130 (+23 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-CHC OVER 8.5 (+1.3), TOR-NYY OVER 8 (+1.1), AZ-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.9), PHI-WSH OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-COL UNDER 11.5 (-1.2), HOU-TEX UNDER 10 (-1.0), SEA-MIL UNDER 9 (-0.7), MIA-STL UNDER 9 (-0.7), CWS-KC UNDER 9 (-0.7)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) PHILADELPHIA (4-4) at (904) WASHINGTON (2-6)
Trend: Philadelphia is 3-11 (-10.18 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -148 currently

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 3-8 (-3.77 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+124 vs PHI)

(911) SAN DIEGO (5-6) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (3-6)
Trend: San Francisco is 11-3 (+6.20 units) at home as a favorite vs. divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-175 vs SD)

(915) OAKLAND (2-7) at (916) DETROIT (6-2)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 23-6 (+9.92 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-192 vs OAK)

(919) CLEVELAND (7-2) at (920) MINNESOTA (3-4)
Trend: Cleveland is 11-3 (+8.08 units) in the last 14 road divisional games with starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 at MIN)

Trend: Minnesota is 3-9 (-7.22 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-125 vs CLE)

(921) BOSTON (6-3) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (5-3)
Trend: Boston is 1-11 (-10.4 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-115 at LAA)

Trend: LAA was 6-2 (+5.23 units) last season with starter Chase Silseth (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (-105 vs BOS)

(923) HOUSTON (2-7) at (924) TEXAS (6-2)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 15-5 (+7.75 units) at HOME as a -120 favorite or higher in career
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently*)

(927) SEATTLE (4-5) at (928) MILWAUKEE (5-2)
Trend: Colin Rea has been good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season and 1-0, +1.20 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-120 vs SEA)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 4/5-Sun 4/7
Trend: Favorites are just 16-29 (35.6%, -25.28 units) in the last 45 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -56.2%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs TOR)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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