The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 8, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-265 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-155 vs MIA), FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs DET), FADE LA DODGERS (-135 at MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is OVER bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in CWS-CLE, PLAY OVER in CHC-SD, PLAY UNDER in WSH-SF

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-112 vs MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-135 at MIN), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-108 at STL), PLAY ARIZONA (-175 at COL), PLAY TAMPA BAY (-142 at LAA), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND RL, NY YANKEES RL, ATLANTA RL, LA DODGERS RL, ARIZONA RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, ARIZONA, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, MINNESOTA

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%.
In games last regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. This represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! These are, in essence, the definition of overpriced favorites: teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. So far for the 2024 season, they are 8-2 for +4.1 units.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-218 vs WSH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far for the 2024 season, they are 10-4 for +1.60 units.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-218 vs NYM), PLAY CLEVELAND (-270 vs CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This situation was rare, only coming up about 25 times per month, but should have been taken advantage of when it arose. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season steadied at an amazing -56.6%! By fading these teams, a season-long backer of this system would have netted about +70 units of profit! This season, these big favorites are 3-5 for -7.38 units.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-270 vs CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2023 season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 14-14 for +1.24 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-108 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at STL), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at SD), SEATTLE (+102 at TOR), DETROIT (+105 at PIT), MINNESOTA (+114 vs LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6% (this 2024 season they are 4-3 for +0.58 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6% (this 2024 season, they are 6-4 for +3.18 units).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs DET)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system” (this 2024 season they are 8-6 for +0.38 units).
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-218 vs NYM), PLAY CLEVELAND (-270 vs CWS)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2% (this 2024 season they are 4-5 for -2.57 units).
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-175 at COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic number run for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1450-1356 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -175.24 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-110 at CIN), MIAMI (+124 at NYY)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1298-1700 (43.3%) for -175.34 units and an R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+105 at PIT), LA DODGERS (-135 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-108 at STL), ARIZONA (-180 at COL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2923-2550 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -374.57 units and an R.O.I. of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-148 vs MIA), ATLANTA (-205 vs NYM)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 822-701 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.18 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+114 vs. LAD), TEXAS (+120 vs. HOU), CINCINNATI (-110 vs. MIL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 417-346 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.40 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+120 vs HOU), CINCINNATI (-110 vs MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 72-59 outright (+5.95 units, ROI: 4.5%).
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-175 at COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 132-106 run (+51.30 units, ROI: 21.6%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+215 at CLE)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 58-60 (-26.53 units, ROI: -22.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-265 vs CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +180 (+26 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +215 (+36 diff), LA ANGELS +120 (+17 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES -155 (+19 diff), CINCINNATI -112 (+18 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-SD OVER 7.5 (+1.0), AZ-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-ATL UNDER 10 (-1.3), PHI-STL UNDER 9 (-0.9), CWS-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.8)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.

(951) MILWAUKEE (6-2) at (952) CINCINNATI (5-4)
Trend: Milwaukee is 1-13 (-17.75 units) in Aaron Ashby’s last 14 starts
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-108 at CIN)

Trend: Cincinnati is 3-12 (-8.1 units) vs MIL/CHC/PIT with starter Graham Ashcraft
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-112 vs MIL)

Trend: Cincinnati is 2-6 (-5.25 units) as short favorite (-125 to -115 line range) with starter Graham Ashcraft
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (*if they fall into this line range, -112 currently*)

(957) ARIZONA (4-6) at (958) COLORADO (2-8)
Trend: Colorado is 6-17 (-8.65 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+145 vs AZ)

(959) CHICAGO-NL (6-3) at (960) SAN DIEGO (5-7)
Trend: San Diego is 9-17 (-10.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -135 currently*)

(963) CHICAGO-AL (1-8) at (964) CLEVELAND (7-2)
Trend: Cleveland is 2-5 (-7.75 units) as large favorite (-170 or more) with starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-270 vs CWS)

(965) SEATTLE (4-6) at (966) TORONTO (4-6)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-13 (-8.90 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120 line range) in last five seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+102 at TOR)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 8-22 (-20.59 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-122 vs SEA)

(969) TAMPA BAY (5-5) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (5-4)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-3 (+10.35 units) in last five seasons as a ROAD pick’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range (including 7-1 (+5.70 units) last season with Tampa Bay)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently)

Trend: Tampa Bay was 13-3 (+7.65 units) in night games with Zach Eflin last season (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-142 at LAA)

(971) MIAMI (1-9) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (8-2)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 1-6 (-6.62 units) vs. AL East competition since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+130 at NYY)

(973) DETROIT (6-3) at (974) PITTSBURGH (8-2)
Trend: Pittsburgh is 4-17 (-9.95 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (-125 vs DET)

(975) LOS ANGELES-NL (8-4) at (976) MINNESOTA (3-4)
Trend: James Paxton was 3-13 (-11.92 units) last season as a favorite (1-0, +1.00 unit this season)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-135 at MIN)

Trend: Minnesota is 8-1 (+8.33 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+114 vs LAD)

Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Mon 4/8-Wed 4/10
Trend: Under the total is 13-3 (81.3%, +9.7 units) in the last 16 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 60.6%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.2)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

SAN DIEGO       
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 17-11 (60.7%) +7.28 units, ROI: 26%    
Next betting opportunity: Monday 4/8 vs Chicago Cubs
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-135 vs CHC)

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