VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 11
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, August 11, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Highly priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday 8/6 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE TAMPA BAY
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ’em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!
System Matches: DETROIT, NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE BOSTON, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE MIAMI
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, DETROIT, SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/31 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 173-132 for +9.94 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 84-56 for +18.13 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 13%.
System Matches: 2-game – SAN DIEGO, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE COLORADO, FADE TEXAS, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE NY YANKEES
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MIAMI, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE SEATTLE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 784-655 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +43.74 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: TAMPA BAY, ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 50-112 (-46.6 units, ROI: -28.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 26-58 in their last 84 tries (-19 units, ROI: -22.6%).
Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 62-46 outright (+10.48 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 151-72 (+21.9 units, ROI: 9.8%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, SEATTLE
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 131-81 in their last 212 tries (+27.59 units, ROI: 13%).
System Match: SEATTLE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+29), COLORADO (+50), CLEVELAND (+27), WASHINGTON (+35)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO (+24), HOUSTON (+46), ST LOUIS (+28), TEXAS (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO-LA DODGERS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), ST LOUIS-KANSAS CITY OVER 10.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.5), CLEVELAND-TAMPA BAY UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), NY YANKEES-MIAMI UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(951) CINCINNATI (60-57) at (952) PITTSBURGH (52-63)
Trend: Cincinnati better in NIGHT games (37-31, +12.55 units))
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati more OVER in NIGHT games (38-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati best team in MLB for OVER as ML underdog (43-31, +8.90 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER in NIGHT games (38-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) ATLANTA (72-41) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (52-62)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL East (22-6, +11.80 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in NIGHT games (42-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM bad as ML underdog (9-25, -15.60 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER in HOME games (16-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) SAN DIEGO (55-60) at (956) ARIZONA (57-58)
Trend: San Diego not as good against RH starters (33-43, -28.19 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego more UNDER as ML favorite (37-46-6 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (37-33, +6.14 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
(957) COLORADO (45-70) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-46)
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (7-22, -10.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (17-18, -12.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (52-27, +10.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(959) CLEVELAND (56-60) at (960) TAMPA BAY (69-48)
Trend: Cleveland not good as ML underdog (19-28, -6.20 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (38-21, +4.15 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay good as ML favorite (62-33, +8.15 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(961) DETROIT (52-63) at (962) BOSTON (60-55)
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit against LH starter splits (9-18 record, -7.20 units)(18-7 O/U)
System Match: FADE DETROIT, PLAY OVER
Trend: Boston good record against AL Central/West teams (26-19)
System Match: BOSTON
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-58) at (964) HOUSTON (66-50)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in divisional games (19-11 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA trending OVER as ML underdog (26-17-6 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston dominant in divisional games (24-13, +7.45 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
(965) BALTIMORE (71-44) at (966) SEATTLE (62-52)
Trend: Baltimore best team in MLB as ML underdog (29-21, +15.04 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (53-30, +23.22 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER in NIGHT games (39-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(967) NEW YORK-AL (59-56) at (968) MIAMI (60-56)
Trend: NYY not good at NIGHT (32-42, -16.92 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Miami good against AL teams (23-15, +10.80 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami good as ML favorite (40-22, +8.96 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami non-divisional games trending UNDER (33-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(969) MINNESOTA (60-57) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (64-52)
Trend: Minnesota more UNDER as ML underdog (12-18-1 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia better against AL teams (24-14, +7.35 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (34-34, -9.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia trending UNDER against AL (15-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(971) OAKLAND (33-82) at (972) WASHINGTON (50-66)
Trend: Oakland decent bet in NIGHT games (24-42, -1.60 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland rarely a ML favorite (0-3, -3.25 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Washington good bet as ML underdog (45-59, +14.14 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (22-34, -4.81 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(973) CHICAGO-NL (59-56) at (974) TORONTO (65-52)
Trend: Chicago trending OVER against AL teams (22-12 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (22-10, +9.95 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in many ways (12-18 O/U against NL, 17-33 O/U at HOME, 22-41 O/U in NIGHT games, 34-54-3 O/U as ML favorite)
System Match: UNDER
(975) MILWAUKEE (62-54) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (47-69)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (46-35, +7.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not as good bet against AL (18-17, -4.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (24-43-4 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(977) ST LOUIS (51-65) at (978) KANSAS CITY (37-80)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (28-45, -26.87 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (20-52, -23.41 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(979) TEXAS (68-47) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (62-53)
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (49-28, +5.50 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending UNDER on the ROAD (23-31 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Francisco good at NIGHT (38-26, +7.75 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco good as ML underdog (20-17, +7.20 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (24-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 8/11-Sun 8/13
Trend: Detroit has lost its last seven (0%, -7 units) games vs. Boston
The R.O.I. on this trend is -100%
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Fri 8/11-Sun 8/13
Trend: Cincinnati has lost its last eight (0%, -8.1 units) games at Pittsburgh
The R.O.I. on this trend is -101.3%
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
OAKLAND
LETDOWN after series vs. TEXAS: 9-17 (34.6%) -10.56 units, ROI: -40.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 8/11 at Washington
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
