VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, August 25
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, August 25, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1431-1336 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.06 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON AND LA DODGERS WHO PLAY EACH OTHER TONIGHT
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1681 (43.3%) for -172.41 units and an R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE BOSTON
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 268-124 (68.4%) for +54.30 units and an R.O.I. of 13.9%!
System Match: MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on a 22-66 skid (-28.2 units, ROI -32%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 52-115 (-48.60 units, ROI: -29.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been wildly successful in snapping their skids, 65-49 outright (+9.84 units, ROI: 8.6%).
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 158-75 (+23.42 units, ROI: 10.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 112-79 (+17.98 units, ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 137-85 in their last 222 tries (+25.86 units, ROI: 11.6%).
System Match: MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 46-46 (-17.3 units, ROI: -18.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+38), CINCINNATI (+50)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+17), MILWAUKEE (+33), ATLANTA (+33), TORONTO (+16), SEATTLE (+53), BALTIMORE (+37)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES-TAMPA BAY OVER 7 (+0.6), LA ANGELS-NY METS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS-PITTSBURGH UNDER 9 (-0.5), ST LOUIS-PHILADELPHIA UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), HOUSTON-DETROIT UNDER 9 (-0.5), CLEVELAND-TORONTO UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), LA DODGERS-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Monday 8/28)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.