The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, COLORADO, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
– Now, in games this season through Sunday 7/23 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 173-99 record, but for -56.44 units.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE TORONTO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been strong out of the second half gate
– A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 233-236 for +54.47 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.6%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, DETROIT
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
– On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 164-157 for -31.59 units, a R.O.I. of -9.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 60-76 for -20.11 units. The R.O.I. on that system is -14.8%, the exact same figure our latest set of results netted.
3+ GAME WINNING STREAKS:
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE BOSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
– When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 157-94 for +36.95 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 14.7%.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– When on 2-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 157-119 for +12.5 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 77-48 for +24.47 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 19.6%.
2 GAME LOSING STREAKS:
System Matches: BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, COLORADO
3+ GAME LOSING STREAKS:
System Matches: DETROIT
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Top MLB Resources:
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and a R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE CINCINNATI
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE TORONTO, FADE ARIZONA, FADE HOUSTON, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 783-654 (54.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +42.54 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 3.0%.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 232-181 (56.2%) for +51.2 units and a R.O.I. of 12.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+36), LA ANGELS (+23), WHITE SOX (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+24), NY METS (+28), MINNESOTA (+46)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT-MIAMI OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE-ATLANTA UNDER 10 (-0.6), CLEVELAND-CHICAGO WHITE SOX UNDER 10 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. >>See situational records for every team.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (55-47) at (952) PITTSBURGH (45-57)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (28-30, -9.50 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia worse against NL (33-34, -11.60 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Pittsburgh better against NL West/East (21-20, +6.10 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh OVER in NIGHT games (32-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) WASHINGTON (43-60) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (48-54)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (23-27, +12.55 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington worse at NIGHT (21-37, -5.20 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (10-24, -21.85 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM UNDER in HOME games (14-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) MILWAUKEE (57-46) at (956) ATLANTA (64-36)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (42-29, +12.05 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (43-17, +16.30 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta OVER in HOME games (30-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(957) CHICAGO-NL (51-51) at (958) ST LOUIS (46-58)
Trend: Chicago better against LH starters (18-13, +4.45 units)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: St. Louis not good at NIGHT (24-39, -24.50 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St. Louis OVER in HOME games (29-17 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) CINCINNATI (56-48) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-43)
Trend: Cincinnati better against NL East/West (26-19, +11.95 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (34-25, +15.20 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati OVER at NIGHT (34-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good play at NIGHT (44-25, +6.00 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (12-16, -14.45 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(961) NEW YORK-AL (54-48) at (962) BALTIMORE (62-40)
Trend: NYY not as good in NIGHT games (28-35, -12.70 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Baltimore better against AL competition (47-26, +21.10 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Orioles OVER in AL games (39-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-49) at (964) TORONTO (57-46)
Trend: LAA OVER on ROAD (27-19 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA better against AL teams (41-31, +5.95 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA better against RH starters (43-31, +8.90 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: Toronto UNDER in NIGHT games (21-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto UNDER in HOME games (16-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(965) CLEVELAND (52-51) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (41-63)
Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (35-30, +3.25 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland UNDER in divisional games (8-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago decent in division (15-15, -1.65 units)
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
(967) TAMPA BAY (62-43) at (968) HOUSTON (58-45)
Trend: Tampa Bay not as good on ROAD (25-24, -6.35 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending UNDER on ROAD (19-25 O/U)
Recommended Wager: UNDER
Trend: Houston not as good for bettors at HOME (27-23, -9.30 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(969) MINNESOTA (54-50) at (970) KANSAS CITY (29-75)
Trend: Minnesota better against division (21-12, +1.50 units)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (14-48, -28.65 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(971) DETROIT (46-57) at (972) MIAMI (55-48)
Trend: Detroit OVER in NIGHT games (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit OVER against LH starters (16-7 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Miami good against AL competition (21-11, +13.35 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami UNDER outside of division play (30-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(973) OAKLAND (28-76) at (974) COLORADO (40-62)
Trend: Oakland better bet in NIGHT games (22-37, +1.35 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland better bet against NL teams (9-20, -4.15 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Colorado better against LH starters (16-17, +5.70 units)
System Match: COLORADO
Trend: Colorado better against AL teams (12-16, +2.30 units)
System Match: COLORADO
(975) SEATTLE (52-50) at (976) ARIZONA (55-48)
Trend: Seattle more OVER in NIGHT games (36-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (35-26, +11.15 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
(977) TEXAS (60-43) at (978) SAN DIEGO (49-54)
Trend: Texas OVER in interleague games (19-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: San Diego better off against AL teams (16-13, -2.70 units)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (30-38, -24.90 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(979) BOSTON (55-47) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (56-47)
Trend: Boston worse against NL competition (17-20, -6.20 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: San Francisco good in NIGHT games (35-22, +9.55 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco UNDER in NIGHT games (22-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top head-to-head series trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends
Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 7/28-Sun 7/30
Trend: HOME TEAMS are 2-12 (14.3%, -15.4 units) in the L14 games between LA Angels & Toronto
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -110%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
