VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, September 15
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, September 15, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, TORONTO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, DETROIT, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Monday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 145-98 record, but for -89.41 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.8%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE SAN DIEGO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 133-48 for +29.99 units as of Tuesday, September 12. This comes after a 7-3 performance last week. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +16.6%! Since my introduction of this system four weeks ago, the results are 29-7 for +11.34 units.
System Match: HOUSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 67-64 for -76.19 units! This angle was 5-4 last week and again lost –3.8 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58.2%! For those wondering the opposite side of how this fares in fading the teams, it’s approximately +60 units.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE HOUSTON, FADE SAN DIEGO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 311-314 for +69.4 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%!
System Matches: CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS, FADE COLORADO, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE SEATTLE
3+ games – FADE NY METS, FADE TEXAS, FADE PITTSBURGH
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 110-74 for +19.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.7% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 3+ games – TORONTO
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 307-280 (52.3%) for +39.04 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.7%.
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI, FADE WASHINGTON, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE NY METS, FADE COLORADO, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 799-677 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.48 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.0%.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, OAKLAND, ARIZONA, BALTIMORE, TORONTO
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 405-333 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +31.19 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Match: OAKLAND
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 144-90 in their last 234 tries (+26.62 units, ROI: 11.4%).
System Match: TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+17), ARIZONA (+16), OAKLAND (+25)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (+17), PHILADELPHIA (+23), HOUSTON (+39), DETROIT (+28)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI-NY METS OVER 7.5 (+1.15), PHILADELPHIA-ST LOUIS OVER 8 (+0.78), SAN FRANCISCO-COLORADO OVER 10.5 (+1.37), TAMPA BAY-BALTIMORE OVER 8.5 (+0.61), BOSTON-TORONTO OVER 8 (+0.73), TEXAS-CLEVELAND OVER 8 (+0.84), DETROIT-LA ANGELS OVER 7.5 (+0.86), LA DODGERS-SEATTLE OVER 7.5 (+0.88)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) ATLANTA (96-50) at (902) MIAMI (75-72)
Trend: Atlanta dominates season series (9-1 record, 3-0 on ROAD)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending over at NIGHT (56-41 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Miami slight OVER in divisional games (23-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(903) CINCINNATI (76-72) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (68-78)
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (49-40, +16.39 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati slight OVER a couple of ways (40-33 O/U on the ROAD, 47-41 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (24-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM better against RH starters (54-48 record)
System Match: NY METS
(905) WASHINGTON (65-82) at (906) MILWAUKEE (82-64)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (34-39, +18.37 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington slight OVER against LH starters (26-22 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (64-41, +18.50 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good at HOME (43-29, +3.57 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(907) PHILADELPHIA (79-67) at (908) ST LOUIS (65-81)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (44-44, -13.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia pretty good against LH starters (27-20, +2.29 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: St Louis bad bet at NIGHT (38-59, -29.52 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (36-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (75-71) at (910) COLORADO (53-92)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (46-38, +2.92 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (46-55 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (34-66, -18.26 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(911) CHICAGO-NL (78-69) at (912) ARIZONA (76-72)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER against NL West/East (19-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago good with LHP Justin Steele on the mound (13-2 record in L15 games)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Arizona pretty good at NIGHT (48-44 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER against LH starters (17-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: SEASON SERIES (CHI 1 – ARI 3, on 4-0 UNDER run)
System Match: LEAN UNDER
(913) TAMPA BAY (91-57) at (914) BALTIMORE (91-55)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (31-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good record vs RH starters (70-49)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Baltimore good record as HOME ML underdog (11-6)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (59-35, +21.17 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(915) BOSTON (74-73) at (916) TORONTO (80-67)
Trend: Boston leads season series (7-3 record, 3-0 at Toronto)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER a couple of ways (48-41 O/U at NIGHT, 26-17 O/U in division)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (28-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) TEXAS (82-64) at (918) CLEVELAND (69-78)
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (50-38 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good record against AL Central/East (37-21, +10.22 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (38-54 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at HOME (24-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(919) MINNESOTA (77-70) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (56-91)
Trend: Minnesota better record at NIGHT (47-38)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (34-52-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad against RH starters (42-68, -24.87 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES (MIN 7 – CHI 3)
(921) HOUSTON (83-64) at (922) KANSAS CITY (46-101)
Trend: Houston better bet on the ROAD (45-27, +14.50 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight OVER at NIGHT (53-44 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (26-64, -29.01 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL West/East (30-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(923) DETROIT (67-79) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-79)
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER on the ROAD (29-39 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit awful against AL West/East (17-40 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: LAA bad against LH starters (13-24, -18.53 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight OVER at NIGHT (50-43 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(925) NEW YORK-AL (74-73) at (926) PITTSBURGH (69-78)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (45-49, -10.77 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: NYY good with RHP Gerrit Cole starting (won last 4 games)
System Match: NY YANKEES
Trend: Pittsburgh not as good against AL teams (18-25, -5.85 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER a couple of ways (43-28 O/U at HOME, 51-35 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(927) SAN DIEGO (69-78) at (928) OAKLAND (46-100)
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (24-19 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego decent against interleague teams (22-18 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Oakland better at NIGHT (34-53, +3.68 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland not great against NL teams (14-29, -6.47 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(929) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-57) at (930) SEATTLE (81-65)
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (66-37, +10.33 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD heavy OVER against AL teams (29-8 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good at HOME (41-30 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against RH starters (59-48 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second half series’ with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Thurs 9/14-Sun 9/17
Trend: Colorado is 1-16 (5.9%, -14.35 units) in their last 17 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -84.4%
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
MOMENTUM after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 16-11 (59.3%) 5.6 units, ROI: 20.7%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/15 at Miami
System Match: ATLANTA
NY YANKEES
LETDOWN after series vs. BOSTON: 13-14 (48.1%) -12.14 units, ROI: -39.6%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/15 at Pittsburgh
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
SAN DIEGO
LETDOWN after series vs. LA DODGERS: 14-15 (48.3%) -6.65 units, ROI: -22.9%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/15 at Oakland
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
