VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Friday, September 22
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Friday, September 22, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, HOUSTON, DETROIT, NY YANKEES
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 17 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE BOSTON, FADE MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 135-52 for +22.33 units as of Monday, September 18. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +11.9%!
System Matches: ATLANTA, HOUSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 71-67 for -79.03 units! This angle was 4-3 last week and again lost –2.84 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -57.3%!
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, SEATTLE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE TEXAS
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 308-283 (52.1%) for +38.59 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Match: WASHINGTON
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE COLORADO, FADE ST LOUIS
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE BOSTON, FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE NY YANKEES
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 406-337 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.17 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.8%.
System Matches: CLEVELAND
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 274-129 (68.1%) for +49.91 units and an R.O.I. of 12.4%!
System Matches: TEXAS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 238-196 (54.9%) for +40.27 units and an R.O.I. of 9.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: WASHINGTON, BOSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 41-92 skid (-29.4 units, ROI: -22.1%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 96-95 (+15.66 units, ROI: 8.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: COLORADO, OAKLAND
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 163-80 (+19.62 units, ROI: 8.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 45-39 (+8.4 units, ROI: 10%) in their last 84 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 144-91 in their last 235 tries (+25.44 units, ROI: 10.8%).
System Matches: SAN DIEGO
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections
System Matches: BALTIMORE (+30), LA ANGELS (+35)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS (+28), DETROIT (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO-CHICAGO CUBS OVER 8.5 (+0.79), ATLANTA-WASHINGTON OVER 9 (+1.35), CHICAGO WHITE SOX-BOSTON OVER 9.5 (+0.5), BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 8 (+0.66), LA ANGELS-MINNESOTA OVER 8.5 (+0.72), DETROIT-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+0.59), ARIZONA-NY YANKEES OVER 8 (+0.98)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PITTSBURGH-CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 (-0.83), SEATTLE-TEXAS UNDER 9 (-0.61)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) COLORADO (56-96) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (79-74)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (36-68, -17.01 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER on the ROAD (32-44 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago good at HOME (42-36 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago heavy UNDER against NL East/West (21-36 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) PITTSBURGH (72-81) at (954) CINCINNATI (79-75)
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against LH starters (29-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh leads season series (6-4 record)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (52-41, +18.69 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER at HOME (32-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(955) MILWAUKEE (87-66) at (956) MIAMI (79-74)
Trend: Milwaukee better at NIGHT (52-38, +7.95 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not great on the ROAD with RHP Corbin Burnes (lost L4 games)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against NL Central/West (21-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better at HOME (44-34, +0.46 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(957) NEW YORK-NL (71-82) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (84-69)
Trend: NYM not good on the ROAD (32-46, -20.94 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM more UNDER in division (17-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: HOME team is 6-1 in season series
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (48-45, -10.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(959) ATLANTA (98-55) at (960) WASHINGTON (68-86)
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (69-35, +6.08 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (19-10 O/U against LH starters, 59-42 O/U at NIGHT, 42-33 O/U on the ROAD)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (32-45, -3.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(961) ST LOUIS (67-86) at (962) SAN DIEGO (75-78)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (39-63, -32.07 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis more OVER against NL West/East (34-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER at HOME (29-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego not great vs NL Central/East (25-36, -25.02 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(963) SAN FRANCISCO (76-77) at (964) LOS ANGELES-NL (94-58)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (46-42 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (71-38, +12.88 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: HOME team is 2-5 in the season series
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (25-22, -9.57 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(965) TORONTO (85-68) at (966) TAMPA BAY (94-60)
Trend: Toronto is decent on the ROAD (44-34, +1.70 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against RH starters (51-61 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (48-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good in division (26-18, +2.46 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(967) CHICAGO-AL (58-95) at (968) BOSTON (75-78)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (21-40 record)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (37-54 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Boston trending OVER against AL Central/West (35-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not great against RH starters (52-60, -15.08 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(969) BALTIMORE (95-58) at (970) CLEVELAND (73-81)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (50-28, +28.73 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL Central/West (41-20 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (44-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER a couple of ways (40-56 O/U at NIGHT, 40-58 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland better at HOME (40-36 record)
System Match: CLEVELAND
(971) SEATTLE (84-68) at (972) TEXAS (84-68)
Trend: Seattle good at NIGHT (56-42 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against RH starters (62-49 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas dominating season series (5-1 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at HOME (45-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-84) at (974) MINNESOTA (81-72)
Trend: LAA not good at NIGHT (44-60, -23.34 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight OVER on the ROAD (41-32 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota good with RHP Pablo Lopez starting (6-3 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER against AL West/East (34-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) KANSAS CITY (51-102) at (976) HOUSTON (85-68)
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (29-64, -24.81 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City better with LHP Cole Ragans lately (4-2 in L6 games)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Houston not good bet at HOME (39-39, -25.04 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (56-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(977) DETROIT (72-81) at (978) OAKLAND (46-107)
Trend: Detroit trending OVER against LH starters (22-11 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit not good against AL West/East (21-40 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Oakland slightly better bet at NIGHT (34-57, -0.32 units)
System Match: OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (37-17 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
(979) ARIZONA (81-72) at (980) NEW YORK-AL (77-76)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER against AL teams (13-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYY trending UNDER against RH starters (52-66 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (48-51, -9.97 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO CUBS
MOMENTUM after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 18-8 (69.2%) 9.66 units, ROI: 37.2%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 vs. Colorado
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
COLORADO
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 16-10 (61.5%) 10.75 units, ROI: 41.3%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 at Chicago Cubs
System Matches: COLORADO
MIAMI
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 8-16 (33.3%) -7.23 units, ROI: -30.1%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 vs. Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE MIAMI
PITTSBURGH
LETDOWN after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 9-17 (34.6%) -5.58 units, ROI: -21.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 at Cincinnati
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH
SAN DIEGO
MOMENTUM after series vs. COLORADO: 17-9 (65.4%) 9.75 units, ROI: 37.5%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/22 vs. St Louis
System Matches: SAN DIEGO