VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, October 16
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 16, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 5+ games – FADE TEXAS, FADE ARIZONA
Trends & Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-107 SU (-50.09 units, ROI: -25.4%)
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 16-13 SU (-0.07 units, ROI: -0.2%) and 17-12 on run lines (7.85 units, ROI: 27.1%) in their L29 tries.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 74-55 SU (-1.27 units, ROI: -0.9%) and 68-61 on run lines (17.26 units, ROI: 13.4%) since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
HOME FIELD has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 34-36 SU (-20.02 units, ROI: -28.6%) since 2013.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-47 SU (-24.84 units, ROI: -28.6%) and 28-59 on run lines (-22.40 units, ROI: -25.7%) since 2012.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 11-34 SU (-19.80 units, ROI: -44%) and 15-30 on run lines (-29.2 units, ROI: -64.9%) in the follow-up game since 2009.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 36-27 SU (15.66 units, ROI: 24.9%) and 41-22 on run lines (14.18 units, ROI: 22.5%) in playoff games.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 54-21 (72%) for +19.9 units since 2000, an ROI of 26.5%!
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 29-27 (+10.7 units, ROI: 19.1%) since 2018.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS, PLAY ARIZONA
Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 36-53 SU (-20.3 units, ROI: -22.8%).
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 10-5 SU (+3.63 units, ROI: 24.2%) surge since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Over the last nine non-neutral LCS series’, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 13-5 SU (+9.4 units, ROI: 52.2%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 7-12 SU (-7.3 units, ROI: -38.4%) and 5-14 (-10.15, ROI: -53.4%) on run lines since 2013
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 are on a BRUTAL skid of 6-25 (-16.4 units, ROI: -52.9%) on run lines.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON on the run line
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 412-341 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.07 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.9%.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 148-94 in their last 242 tries (+26.02 units, ROI: 10.8%).
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 16-42 (-11.25 units, ROI: -19.4%) in their last 58 tries.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -166 (+33 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -120 (+17 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-PHILADELPHIA OVER 7 (+0.3 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS-HOUSTON UNDER 8.5 (-0.5 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(965) TEXAS (96-72) at (966) HOUSTON (93-74)
Trend: Texas not as profitable bet on the ROAD (45-41, -1.55 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas has a 9-4 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 3-1 in L4 games against LHP Framber Valdez
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Houston is leading season series (9-5 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Six of the last eight games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston not good bet at HOME (40-44, -34.86 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at HOME (47-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston better during the DAY (32-22, +3.45 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
(967) ARIZONA (89-78) at (968) PHILADELPHIA (95-73)
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (57-47, +11.85 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona slight UNDER against RH starters (52-59 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: ROAD teams are 6-1 on the run line in season series
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Philadelphia dominant at HOME in postseason (10-2 record L2 years)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (45-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (4-3 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
