VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, September 18
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 18, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher (System Matches): MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, LA DODGERS
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday 9/17 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: BOSTON, BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON
Worse bullpen teams struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Match: 4-games – FADE DETROIT
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 9/11, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 112-78 for +15.75 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 8.3% after the past seven days. Updating the results since September 4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 110-74 for +19.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.7% after the past seven days.
System Matches: SEATTLE, BOSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE COLORADO, FADE SAN DIEGO
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BOSTON, FADE SEATTLE, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE HOUSTON, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 804-680 (54.2%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +31.98 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.2%.
System Match: WASHINGTON
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 274-127 (68.3%) for +53.58 units and an R.O.I. of 13.4%!
System Matches: MIAMI
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 238-194 (55.2%) for +43.17 units and an R.O.I. of 10% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: ATLANTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 124-104 run (+43.98 units, ROI: 19.3%).
System Match: BOSTON
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 94-94 (+14.16 units, ROI: 7.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: BOSTON
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 14-41 (-14.9 units, ROI: -27.1%) in their last 55 tries.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (+17), BOSTON (+23), BALTIMORE (+32), CINCINNATI (+39), WASHINGTON (+22)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE-ST LOUIS OVER 8.5 (+0.65), BOSTON-TEXAS OVER 8.5 (+0.6), SEATTLE-OAKLAND OVER 7.5 (+1.05)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MINNESOTA-CINCINNATI UNDER 9.5 (-0.75)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (69-80) at (952) MIAMI (78-72)
Trend: NYM not great on the ROAD (30-44, -21.32 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM slight UNDER a couple of ways (15-23 O/U in division, 42-53 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better at HOME (43-32, +2.30 units)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Miami trending OVER in divisional games (26-18 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(953) PHILADELPHIA (81-68) at (954) ATLANTA (96-53)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (46-44, -11.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Atlanta winning season series (7-3 record)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta great at NIGHT (67-34, +5.13 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER a couple of ways (24-16 O/U in division, 42-29 O/U at HOME)
System Match: OVER
(955) MILWAUKEE (84-65) at (956) ST LOUIS (66-83)
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (66-41, +20.50 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not great bet as ROAD ML favorite (13-12 record)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (38-61, -31.52 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis not good with RHP Adam Wainwright starting (lost seven of the last eight games)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(957) COLORADO (56-93) at (958) SAN DIEGO (72-78)
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (36-66, -15.01 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER on the ROAD (31-42 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego better against LH starters (25-19 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (28-41 O/U at HOME, 16-25 O/U vs LH starters)
System Match: UNDER
(959) CLEVELAND (72-78) at (960) KANSAS CITY (48-102)
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER in divisional games (12-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland leads season series 7-3
System Match: CLEVELAND
Trend: Kansas City slightly better with RHP Brady Singer starting (he has a 5-4 W-L at HOME)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City trending more UNDER in DAY games (23-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) BOSTON (74-76) at (962) TEXAS (82-67)
Trend: Boston better against LH starters (22-18, +2.18 units)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER against AL West/Central (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good against AL East/Central (37-24, +6.74 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at HOME (43-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(963) BALTIMORE (93-56) at (964) HOUSTON (84-66)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (48-26, +28.34 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL West/Central (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (38-37, -22.26 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slightly better against LH starters (27-19 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
(965) SEATTLE (81-68) at (966) OAKLAND (46-103)
Trend: Seattle dominates season series (9-1 record, 3-0 on the ROAD)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle more UNDER against LH starters (16-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland trending UNDER in division (18-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Oakland bad against RH starters (27-78, -31.10 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(967) MINNESOTA (79-71) at (968) CINCINNATI (78-73)
Trend: Minnesota slight UNDER in interleague play (16-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota better at NIGHT (48-39 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Cincinnati very good in interleague play (26-15, +14.43 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER a couple of ways (31-43 O/U at HOME, 47-57 O/U vs RH starters)
System Match: UNDER
(969) CHICAGO-AL (57-93) at (970) WASHINGTON (66-84)
Trend: Chicago bad in interleague play (13-24, -8.56 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending OVER as ML favorite (31-21 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (30-43, -3.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (36-52 record)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(971) DETROIT (70-79) at (972) LOS ANGELES-NL (91-57)
Trend: Detroit heavy OVER against interleague teams (27-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit slightly better on the ROAD (38-36, +14.18 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: LAD heavy OVER against AL teams (30-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (23-22, -11.57 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Top Head-To Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/19)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Thursday 9/21)
