VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Monday, September 4
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Monday, September 4, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): CHICAGO CUBS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Friday 9/1 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 131-91 record, but for -87.39 units. This is an R.O.I. of -40%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was 9-7 for -8.57 units, another huge week of success fading these teams.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BALTIMORE
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 125-42 for +32.75 units as of Friday, September 1. This coming after an 8-1 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +21.0%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 14-1 for +11.4 units, with Colorado’s upset of Baltimore on Sunday snapping the 14-game winning streak.
System Match: TORONTO
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 62-59 for -70.19 units! This angle was 5-3 last week and again lost -2.1 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -58%!
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 12-10 (+3.65 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 291-294 for +66.23 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.3%!
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CLEVELAND
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 199-204 for -36.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.1%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-100 for -26.80 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -15.2%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE BOSTON
3-game – FADE OAKLAND
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 199-133 for +22.26 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.7%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Match: NONE TODAY
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/21 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 207-159 for +7.33 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 7-5 week and have now gone 102-68 for +22.28 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – ARIZONA
3-game – CHICAGO WHITE SOX, HOUSTON
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE OAKLAND
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE ARIZONA, FADE TEXAS, FADE OAKLAND, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CINCINNATI
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 402-329 (55.0%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +35.47 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.9%.
System Match: CLEVELAND
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 236-190 (55.5%) for +45.99 units and an R.O.I. of 10.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match: CINCINNATI
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO STREAK PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/5)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO (+21), PHILADELPHIA (+20), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+48), CINCINNATI (+27)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON (+31), TORONTO (+24), TAMPA BAY (+29)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX-KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5 (+0.9), BALTIMORE-LA ANGELS OVER 9 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE-PITTSBURGH UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) SAN FRANCISCO (70-67) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (73-64)
Trend: San Francisco good vs. LH starters (23-15, +6.84 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (28-31, -10.32 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (34-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Chicago pretty good at HOME (37-31 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
(953) COLORADO (50-86) at (954) ARIZONA (70-67)
Trend: Colorado not good against RH starters (31-62, -19.30 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Arizona dominant against Colorado this season (8-2 record)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (24-26, -3.86 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
(955) MILWAUKEE (76-60) at (956) PITTSBURGH (63-74)
Trend: Milwaukee has winning record vs Pittsburgh this season (7-3)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER on the ROAD (25-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER multiple ways (40-24 O/U at HOME, 47-32 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(957) PHILADELPHIA (75-61) at (958) SAN DIEGO (65-73)
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (33-21, +5.90 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (31-24 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (41-54, -34.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (18-26 O/U during the DAY, 27-39 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(959) CHICAGO-AL (53-84) at (960) KANSAS CITY (42-96)
Trend: Chicago slight UNDER against LH starters (14-20 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series on 5-1 run to the UNDER
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Kansas City LHP Cole Ragans has been good recently
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(961) HOUSTON (77-61) at (962) TEXAS (76-60)
Trend: Houston better on the ROAD (42-27, +11.36 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston leads season series (6-4 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston good against LH starters (26-16, +1.84 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Texas good at HOME (43-26, +5.80 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas better during the DAY (31-21, +2.53 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(963) TORONTO (75-62) at (964) OAKLAND (42-95)
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against AL West/Central (18-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Toronto good during the DAY (33-23 record)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Oakland terrible during the DAY (11-45, -27.98 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL East/Central (34-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: CHECK OUT MOMENTUM TREND BELOW
(965) BOSTON (71-66) at (966) TAMPA BAY (83-54)
Trend: Boston more OVER on the ROAD (38-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay more OVER at HOME (41-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (45-23, +8.00 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: INTERESTING HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(967) MINNESOTA (71-66) at (968) CLEVELAND (66-71)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD series on 8-2 UNDER run this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Minnesota not as good on the ROAD (31-37, -9.53 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Cleveland better against RH starters (46-42, +2.90 units)
System Match: CLEVELAND
(969) BALTIMORE (85-51) at (970) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-73)
Trend: Baltimore dominant against AL West/Central (36-18, +14.54 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore more OVER on the ROAD (36-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA good record against AL East/Central (27-21, +4.90 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA trending OVER against AL teams (48-37 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) SEATTLE (77-59) at (972) CINCINNATI (71-68)
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER against NL teams (17-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER during the DAY (23-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati bad during the DAY (25-31, -5.53 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (22-13, +11.69 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Mon 9/4-Wed 9/6
Trend: Boston has lost its last 14 (0%, -14.05 units) games at Tampa Bay
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -100.4%.
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
LETDOWN after series vs. DETROIT: 8-17 (32.0%) -9.2 units, ROI: -36.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 at Kansas City
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
OAKLAND
LETDOWN after series vs. LA ANGELS: 9-17 (34.6%) -13.3 units, ROI: -51.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 vs. Toronto
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 16-9 (64.0%) 8.7 units, ROI: 34.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/4 vs. Philadelphia
System Match: SAN DIEGO
