VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, October 21
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 21, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-15 SU skid (-14.12 units, ROI: -70.6%)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-56 SU (-1.42 units, ROI: -1.1%) and 70-61 on run lines (19.56 units, ROI: 14.9%) since ’15.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA on the run line
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 27-46 SU (-14.05 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 38-29 SU (15.90 units, ROI: 23.7%) and 43-24 on run lines (13.08 units, ROI: 19.5%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 35-29 (+15.04 units, ROI: 23.5%) since 2018.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 22-31 SU (-13.5 units, ROI: -25.5%) since 2015.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA +114 (+17 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-ARIZONA UNDER 8 (-0.3 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(921) PHILADELPHIA (97-75) at (922) ARIZONA (91-80)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (33-46 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona lost Game 1 with these same starting pitchers
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: ROAD teams are 0-4 on the run line in this postseason series
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good record vs. RH starters (65-52)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia very slight UNDER at NIGHT (48-50 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (6-5 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
