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NFL Week 7 Windy Under System Matches
If you ask my two colleagues at VSiN who played in the NFL, Shaun King and Mike Pritchard, they will tell you that when it comes to weather, it’s not the heat, cold, snow or rain that makes the biggest impact on the game: it’s the wind.
When it’s windy, it’s harder to throw the ball and move the chains. It can also lead to missed kicks. Oftentimes, teams will elect to run the ball more in the wind, which then chews up the clock. In all of these instances, the wind hurts the offense and leads to lower scoring games. The oddsmakers know this and will set (and move) the odds accordingly based on the forecast.
The line of demarcation is 10 MPH. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 117-63 (65%) since 2021. A $100 bettor playing every windy under during this time would have profited roughly $4,300.
With this in mind, let’s discuss the windy under system matches for NFL Week 7….
Washington Commanders (-2.5, 37.5) at New York Giants
This is the windiest under of the week, with expected 20 MPH winds and gusts up to 40 MPH. We’ve seen the total fall from 41.5 to 37.5. Currently 55% of bets and 75% of money is taking the under, a sharp bet split. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more in a conference games the under is 49-17 (74%) since 2022. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 56% to the under historically.
Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40) at New England Patriots
The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH. The total has fallen from 44 to 40. Currently 56% of bets and 86% of money is taking the under, a sharp bet split. Outdoor divisional unders are 90-60 (60%) since 2021. Mac Jones is 5-1 to the under this season and 21-16 (57%) to the under in his career.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43)
The forecast calls for 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30 MPH. The total has fallen from 44.5 to 43. Currently 44% of bets and 70% of dollars are taking the under, a sharp contrarian bet split. Non-conference unders are 18-9 (67%) this season. When the totals fall at least a half point the under is 37-19 (66%) this season. The Ravens are 5-1 to the under this season and 17-6 (74%) to the under since 2022.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 51.5)
This Sunday Night Football forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds with gusts up to 25 MPH. We’ve seen the under fall from 53 to 51.5. Currently 37% of bets but 51% of dollars are on the under, a sharp contrarian bet split. Non-conference unders are 18-9 (67%) this season. When the total is 49 or more, the under is 7-2 this season and 30-13 (70%) since 2022. Primetime unders are 12-7 (63%) this season.