VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, October 28
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 28, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): ARIZONA
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: ARIZONA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE TEXAS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-111 SU (-55.11 units, ROI: -27.4%)
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-40 SU (19.53 units, ROI: 18.8%) and 56-48 on run lines (17.23 units, ROI: 16.6%) since ’13.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 27-48 SU (-16.05 units, ROI: -21.4%) since 2016.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 40-31 SU (16.89 units, ROI: 23.8%) and 46-25 on run lines (14.60 units, ROI: 20.6%) in playoff games.
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDER’s. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Nine Top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 16-23 slide in the last 39 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-13.85 Units, -35.5% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Home-field advantage was a much bigger deal in earlier rounds of the playoffs, particularly the divisional round, so be careful not to over-value this factor when it comes to the World Series, as the best teams in the league know how to win on the road as well. Obviously, these numbers don’t include the 2020 series, which was played in a neutral environment.
System Match: PLAY TEXAS
WORLD SERIES system #4:
Overall, on totals, there has been a very slight lean to the OVER in WORLD SERIES games over the last 14 years; however, in games with totals of eight or higher, UNDER holds an edge of 16-11 in that span (+3.2 Units, 11.9% R.O.I.)
Analysis: Typically, pitching, especially deep in games, takes center stage in the World Series. Both of these teams have solid bullpens to bolster above-average starting rotations. For as well as the teams’ lineups might hit, both on paper and in playoff action to date, higher totaled World Series games have leaned UNDER of late.
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
WORLD SERIES teams have struggled to put back-to-back wins together recently, going 6-19 in the game following up a WS win (-17.15 Units, -68.6% R.O.I.)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Analysis: There has been a lot of back-and-forth in the World Series recently, and teams that are able to string wins together wind up having a huge advantage in the series.
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (7 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -142 (+7 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA-TEXAS UNDER 9 (-0.7 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(943) ARIZONA (93-82) at (944) TEXAS (100-75)
Trend: Arizona good at NIGHT (60-51, +11.98 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER vs AL teams (17-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona good vs. LH starters (32-21, +11.17 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona is leading season series (3-2, including 3-1 in the last four games)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Texas good with LHP Jordan Montgomery in postseason (4-1 in games where he pitches)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (59-46 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas dominant at HOME (52-34, +3.41 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 4-2 all-time in WS Home games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 0-2 in WS appearances while Arizona is 1-0
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO MORE QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS THIS SEASON
