VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Saturday, September 16
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 16, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): ATLANTA, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, DETROIT, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO (GAME 1 AND 2)
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Monday, September 11, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 145-98 record, but for -89.41 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.8%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE MINNESOTA
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 213-225 for -39.56 units, an R.O.I. of -9.0%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 83-108 for -27.01 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -14.1%.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE COLORADO, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 217-144 for +23.71 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.6%.
System Matches: TAMPA BAY
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since September 4, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have now gone 110-74 for +19.71 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 10.7% after the past seven days.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 307-281 (52.2%) for +38.04 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches: LA ANGELS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE MINNESOTA, FADE DETROIT
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON, FADE HOUSTON, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE MIAMI, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ARIZONA
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 801-680 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +28.62 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.9%.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, TORONTO
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 405-334 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.19 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.1%.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, ST LOUIS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 123-103 run (+43.98 units, ROI: 19.5%).
System Matches: WASHINGTON, BALTIMORE
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 94-91 (+17.34 units, ROI: 9.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: WASHINGTON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+22), TAMPA BAY (+23), HOUSTON (+52), LA DODGERS (+24), SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 AND 2
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY-BALTIMORE OVER 7.5 (+1.5), MINNESOTA-CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO-COLORADO GAME 2 UNDER 12 (-0.6)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(981) SAN FRANCISCO (75-72) at (982) COLORADO (54-92) (DH Game #1)
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (29-33, -11.32 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER against RH starters (46-56 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (35-66, -16.41 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(961) SAN FRANCISCO (75-72) at (962) COLORADO (54-92) (DH Game #2)
Trend: San Francisco better against LH starters (25-17, +6.84 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco trending UNDER at NIGHT (35-48 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad at NIGHT (34-58, -8.51 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: CHECK OUT HEAD-TO-HEAD TREND BELOW
(951) ATLANTA (96-51) at (952) MIAMI (76-72)
Trend: Atlanta dominates season series (9-2 record, 3-1 on ROAD)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER in general (81-62 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against LH starters (10-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(953) CINCINNATI (77-72) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (68-79)
Trend: Cincinnati better at NIGHT (50-40, +17.39 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati slight OVER a couple of ways (40-33 O/U on the ROAD, 47-41 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (24-43 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM awful against LH starters (14-30, -26.00 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
(955) WASHINGTON (65-83) at (956) MILWAUKEE (83-64)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (34-40, +17.37 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (36-51 record)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (65-41, +19.50 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee good at HOME (44-29, +4.57 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
(957) PHILADELPHIA (80-67) at (958) ST LOUIS (65-82)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (45-44, -12.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against NL Central/West (34-25 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: St Louis bad bet at NIGHT (38-60, -30.52 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis slight OVER at HOME (37-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(959) CHICAGO-NL (78-70) at (960) ARIZONA (77-72)
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER against NL West/East (20-35 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona pretty good at NIGHT (49-44, +5.45 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (29-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: SEASON SERIES (CHI 1 – ARI 4, on 4-1 UNDER run)
System Match: LEAN UNDER
(963) BOSTON (74-74) at (964) TORONTO (81-67)
Trend: Boston leads season series (7-4 record, 3-1 at Toronto)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER a couple of ways (26-18 O/U in division, 30-24 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER at HOME (28-40 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(965) TEXAS (82-65) at (966) CLEVELAND (70-78)
Trend: Texas trending OVER at NIGHT (51-38 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good record against AL Central/East (37-22, +9.04 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at NIGHT (39-54 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER at HOME (25-47 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(967) TAMPA BAY (92-57) at (968) BALTIMORE (91-56)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER on the ROAD (31-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good record vs RH starters (71-49)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Baltimore good at NIGHT (59-36, +20.17 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(969) HOUSTON (83-65) at (970) KANSAS CITY (47-101)
Trend: Houston better bet on the ROAD (45-28, +12.58 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight OVER at NIGHT (53-45 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City bad at NIGHT (27-64, -27.41 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Kansas City slight OVER against AL West/East (30-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(971) MINNESOTA (78-70) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (56-92)
Trend: Minnesota better record at NIGHT (48-38)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (35-52-5 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago bad against RH starters (42-69, -25.87 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES (MIN 8 – CHI 3)
(973) DETROIT (68-79) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-80)
Trend: Detroit heavy OVER against LH starters (21-10 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Detroit awful against AL West/East (18-40 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: LAA bad at NIGHT (43-58, -23.39 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight OVER at NIGHT (51-43 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) SAN DIEGO (70-78) at (976) OAKLAND (46-101)
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (45-59, -34.98 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego decent against interleague teams (23-18 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Trend: Oakland not good during the DAY (12-47, -28.58 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland not great against NL teams (14-30, -7.47 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(977) NEW YORK-AL (75-73) at (978) PITTSBURGH (69-79)
Trend: NYY not as good at NIGHT (46-49, -9.77 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Pittsburgh not as good against AL teams (18-26, -6.85 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER a couple of ways (44-28 O/U at HOME, 52-35 O/U at NIGHT)
System Match: OVER
(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (89-57) at (980) SEATTLE (81-66)
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (67-37, +11.33 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD heavy OVER against AL teams (30-8 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Seattle good at HOME (41-31 record)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Seattle trending OVER at NIGHT (54-40 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Thurs 9/14-Sun 9/17
Trend: Colorado is 2-16 (11.1%, -12.55 units) in their last 18 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -69.7%
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Thursday 9/21)
