VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, August 20
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 20, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher: ST LOUIS, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Saturday 8/19 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 119-81 record, but for -74.94 units. This is an R.O.I. of -37.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE PHILADELPHIA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 106-41 for +20.45 units as of Saturday 8/19. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc, and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc, enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +13.9%!
System Matches: BALTIMORE, CHICAGO CUBS
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 53-54 for -67.94 units! This angle was 3-5 last week and lost -7.12 units! This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -63.5%!
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-270 for +63.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.8%!
System Matches: CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-184 for -34.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.4%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE BOSTON, FADE COLORADO
3+ games – FADE NY METS, FADE SEATTLE
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 185-121 for +27.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 9.1%.
System Match: ATLANTA
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/7 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 184-137 for +12.86 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a big 6-1 week and have now gone 90-57 for +23.23 units. The R.O.I. for the season jumped back up to 15.8% after that surge this past seven days.
System Matches: 2-game – HOUSTON
3+ games – ST LOUIS, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 304-269 (53.1%) for +49.11 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 8.6%.
System Matches: NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1430-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -166.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE SEATTLE, FADE NY METS, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE ATLANTA, FADE COLORADO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 785-659 (54.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +40.26 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.8%.
System Matches: NY YANKEES, TEXAS
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 400-326 (55.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.02 units, for an R.O.I. of 5.2%.
System Match: TEXAS
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 233-183 (56.2%) for +50.2 units and an R.O.I. of 12.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: HOUSTON, WASHINGTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 13-15 (+6.82 units, ROI: 24.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 51-113 (-46.6 units, ROI: -28.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 27-59 in their last 86 tries (-19 units, ROI: -22.1%).
Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 89-83 (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.0%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: ST LOUIS
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 158-74 (+25.80 units, ROI: 11.1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: ATLANTA
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 135-83 in their last 218 tries (+28.49 units, ROI: 13.1%).
System Matches: ATLANTA
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 13-40 (-15.5 units, ROI: -29.2%) in their last 53 tries.
System Matches: FADE SEATTLE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+17), SEATTLE (+28), CLEVELAND (+31), MILWAUKEE (+25)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE (+44), MINNESOTA (+26)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BALTIMORE-OAKLAND OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PITTSBURGH-MINNESOTA UNDER 10 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (64-59) at (902) ATLANTA (80-42)
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (25-28, -10.86 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Francisco solid against LH starters (19-13, +3.75 units)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: Atlanta good against the NL (54-22, +17.90 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at HOME (36-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(903) NEW YORK-NL (58-66) at (904) ST LOUIS (54-70)
Trend: NYM not as good against NL Central/West (27-29, -11.63 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (33-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (23-20, -3.65 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
(909) PHILADELPHIA (67-56) at (910) WASHINGTON (56-68)
Trend: Philadelphia not as good bet at NIGHT (36-36, -10.74 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-36, +0.48 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (29-42, +0.89 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
(911) SEATTLE (68-55) at (912) HOUSTON (70-54)
Trend: Seattle trending UNDER during the DAY (17-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle good against AL West/Houston (21-11, +8.15 units in division, 7-2 vs Houston)
System Match: SEATTLE
Trend: Houston not as good bet at HOME (33-28, -9.95 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
(913) BOSTON (65-58) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (60-63)
Trend: Boston is 7-1 against NY YANKEES this season
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: NYY is good during the DAY (27-17, +6.93 units)
System Match: NY YANKEES
(915) DETROIT (56-67) at (916) CLEVELAND (59-65)
Trend: Detroit good in division (24-15, +13.04 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit bad against LH starters (9-19, -8.20 units)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER in DAY games (25-32 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 8-1 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland worse against LH starters (19-25, -15.25 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-30 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(917) BALTIMORE (76-47) at (918) OAKLAND (34-89)
Trend: Baltimore good against AL teams (57-31, +26.58 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER against AL teams (46-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland trending OVER against AL Central/East (29-13 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Oakland terrible in DAY games (9-41, -26.00 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
(921) TORONTO (68-56) at (922) CINCINNATI (64-60)
Trend: Toronto good against NL teams (25-14, +7.38 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER in other ways (15-22 O/U against NL, 28-35 O/U on the ROAD)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cincinnati good against AL teams (19-12, +8.96 units)
System Match: CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER at HOME (26-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) PITTSBURGH (55-68) at (924) MINNESOTA (64-60)
Trend: Pittsburgh good OVER team as ML underdog (50-37-4, +9.30 units)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending UNDER in DAY games (22-26 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh not good against AL teams (15-24, -8.15 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Trend: Minnesota trending UNDER a couple ways (13-19 O/U against NL, 11-16 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: UNDER
(925) KANSAS CITY (40-85) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (63-59)
Trend: Kansas City decent bet during the DAY (18-30, -4.10 units)
System Match: KANSAS CITY
Trend: Cubs trending OVER in multiple ways (35-25 O/U at HOME, 25-16 O/U against AL teams, 44-38 O/U against RH starters, 31-20 O/U during the DAY)
System Match: OVER
(927) MILWAUKEE (67-57) at (928) TEXAS (72-51)
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (50-37, +9.17 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (18-33-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas trending OVER in HOME games (36-25 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas good during the DAY (30-19, +4.80 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good as ML favorite (53-31, +5.30 units)
System Match: TEXAS
(929) CHICAGO-AL (48-75) at (930) COLORADO (48-75)
Trend: Chicago bad against NL teams (12-24, -9.56 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending OVER as ML favorite (26-16-2 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (30-53, -12.40 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 8/22)
