VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, October 15
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, October 15, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 5-games – FADE TEXAS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-106 SU (-48.67 units, ROI: -24.8%)
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
Series wins status
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 74-54 SU (0.15 units, ROI: 0.1%) and 68-60 on run lines (18.26 units, ROI: 14.3%) since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Stats from last game trends
Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 10-34 SU (-21.00 units, ROI: -47.7%) and 14-30 on run lines (-30.2 units, ROI: -68.6%) in the follow-up game since ’09.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 28-27 (+9.5 units, ROI: 17.3%) since 2018.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 10-4 SU (+5.05 units, ROI: 36.1%) surge since 2015.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
UNDERS hold a huge edge on Game 1 totals of eight or more dating back to the year 2000, 15-7 (+6.3 units, ROI: 28.6%)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in TEX-HOU
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -142 (+6 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS-HOUSTON UNDER 8.5 (-0.6 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(963) TEXAS (95-72) at (964) HOUSTON (93-73)
Trend: Texas not as profitable bet on the ROAD (44-41, -2.75 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas has an 8-4 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is just 2-8 in the last 10 games facing RHP Justin Verlander
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Houston is leading season series (9-4 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: 6 of L7 games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston not good bet at HOME (40-43, -33.44 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER a couple of ways (47-35 O/U at HOME, 28-21 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: OVER
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
