VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, September 24
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, September 24, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA (GAME 1 AND 2), MILWAUKEE, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, DETROIT, NY YANKEES
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Sunday, September 17, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 150-101 record, but for -91.62 units. This is an R.O.I. of -36.5%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE MINNESOTA
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 135-52 for +22.33 units as of Monday, September 18. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle for the season is +11.9%!
System Matches: ATLANTA (GAME 1 AND GAME 2), HOUSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s been an opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 71-67 for -79.03 units! This angle was 4-3 last week and again lost –2.84 units. This situation is rare but should be taken advantage of when it arises. The R.O.I. on this amazing angle for the season has steadied and is now at -57.3%!
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS, FADE HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 320-323 for +71.14 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.1%! Last week’s better bullpen dogs compiled a 10-9 record for +2.84 units.
System Matches: BALTIMORE, SEATTLE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 226-235 for -32.21 units, an R.O.I. of -6.9%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 89-114 for -25.47 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -12.5%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND
3+ games – FADE TEXAS, FADE KANSAS CITY
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 221-152 for +15.57 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE CINCINNATI
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA, FADE LA ANGELS, FADE DETROIT, FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX, FADE BALTIMORE, FADE SEATTLE, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE NY YANKEES, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE MIAMI, FADE TAMPA BAY, FADE CINCINNATI, FADE LA DODGERS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 806-683 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +30.45 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.0%.
System Matches: CLEVELAND
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 408-338 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.62 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.8%.
System Matches: MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 239-197 (54.8%) for +40.27 units and an R.O.I. of 9.2% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: CINCINNATI
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 98-97 (+16.62 units, ROI: 8.5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: COLORADO
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 46-40 (+7.48 units, ROI: 8.7%) in their last 86 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 117-84 (+18.70 units, ROI: 9.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 145-92 in their last 237 tries (+24.52 units, ROI: 10.3%).
System Matches: KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 15-42 (-13.6 units, ROI: -23.9%) in their L57 tries.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 51-53 (-23.40 units, ROI: -22.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA GAME 1 (+15), TAMPA BAY (+23), TEXAS (+26), DETROIT (+27)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE-MIAMI OVER 7 (+0.8), CHICAGO WHITE SOX-BOSTON OVER 8.5 (+0.6), BALTIMORE-CLEVELAND OVER 7.5 (+1.1), DETROIT-OAKLAND OVER 7.5 (+0.7), ARIZONA-NY YANKEES OVER 7 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH-CINCINNATI UNDER 10.5 (-0.8)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (71-84) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (86-69)
Trend: NYM not good on the ROAD (32-47, -21.94 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM bad against LH starters (15-33, -28.15 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: HOME team is 8-1 in season series
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(953) ATLANTA (99-55) at (954) WASHINGTON (68-87) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Atlanta winning season series (6-2 record total, 4-1 on the ROAD)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against RH starters (67-53 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (31-32, +16.24 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington slight OVER at HOME (40-36 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(955) PITTSBURGH (74-81) at (956) CINCINNATI (79-77)
Trend: Pittsburgh slight UNDER during the DAY (26-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh leads season series (8-4 record)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Cincinnati not great during the DAY (27-34, -6.53 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trending UNDER at HOME (34-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(957) MILWAUKEE (88-67) at (958) MIAMI (80-75)
Trend: Milwaukee good against RH starters (68-42, +20.75 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Miami heavy UNDER against NL Central/West (23-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Miami better at HOME (45-35 record)
System Match: MIAMI
(959) COLORADO (56-98) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (81-74)
Trend: Colorado trending UNDER against LH starters (18-29 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado not great during the DAY (21-38, -9.01 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: Chicago good at HOME (44-36 record)
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS
Trend: Chicago heavy UNDER against NL East/West (22-37 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(961) SAN FRANCISCO (77-78) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (95-59)
Trend: San Francisco better at NIGHT (47-43 record)
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (72-39, +12.22 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: HOME team is 3-6 in the season series
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at HOME (52-28, +6.34 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(963) ST LOUIS (68-87) at (964) SAN DIEGO (76-79)
Trend: St Louis better during the DAY (28-23 record)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis more OVER against NL West/East (34-27 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER at HOME (29-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: San Diego good vs. LH starters (26-19 record)
System Match: SAN DIEGO
(965) TORONTO (86-69) at (966) TAMPA BAY (95-61)
Trend: Toronto is decent on the ROAD (45-35, +2.00 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against RH starters (53-61 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (50-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Tampa Bay good against LH starters (23-9, +9.90 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
(967) CHICAGO-AL (59-96) at (968) BOSTON (76-79)
Trend: Chicago bad against AL East/West (22-41 record)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Trend: Chicago trending UNDER as ML underdog (37-56 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Boston trending OVER against AL Central/West (35-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Boston not great against RH starters (53-61, -15.63 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
(969) BALTIMORE (96-59) at (970) CLEVELAND (74-82)
Trend: Baltimore good on the ROAD (51-29, +28.73 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore good against AL Central/West (42-21 record)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (45-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER a couple of ways (41-58 O/U against RH starters, 27-50 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(971) KANSAS CITY (53-102) at (972) HOUSTON (85-70)
Trend: Kansas City trending UNDER during the DAY (23-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Houston not good bet at HOME (39-41, -30.19 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON
Trend: Houston decent during the DAY (29-21, +3.25 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (70-85) at (974) MINNESOTA (82-73)
Trend: LAA slightly better during the DAY (26-24, +2.36 units)
System Match: LA ANGELS
Trend: LAA slight OVER on the ROAD (42-33 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Minnesota trending OVER against AL West/East (35-24 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(975) SEATTLE (84-70) at (976) TEXAS (86-68)
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER during the DAY (23-28 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle decent against RH starters (63-53 record)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Texas dominating season series (7-1 record)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas trending OVER at HOME (46-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(977) DETROIT (72-83) at (978) OAKLAND (48-107)
Trend: Detroit trending UNDER during the DAY (28-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Detroit not good against AL West/East (21-42 record)
System Match: FADE DETROIT
Trend: Oakland not good during the DAY (13-50, -30.48 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland heavy OVER against AL Central/East (38-18 O/U!)
System Match: OVER
(979) ARIZONA (81-73) at (980) NEW YORK-AL (78-76)
Trend: Arizona heavy UNDER against AL teams (13-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona good against LH starters (27-21, +4.84 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: NYY better during the DAY (29-25 record)
System Match: NY YANKEES
(981) ATLANTA (99-55) at (982) WASHINGTON (68-87) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Atlanta winning season series (6-2 record total, 4-1 on the ROAD)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER at NIGHT (60-42 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Washington not great at HOME (32-46, -4.57 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington slight UNDER against RH starters (47-52 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/26)
