VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Sunday, September 3
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Sunday, September 3, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher (System Matches): MILWAUKEE, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, LA ANGELS, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Friday, September 1, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 131-91 record, but for -87.39 units. This is an R.O.I. of -40%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two. Last week this angle was 9-7 for -8.57 units, another huge week of success fading these teams.
System Match: FADE TORONTO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are now 125-42 for +32.75 units as of Friday, September 1. This coming after an 8-1 performance last week. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, Colorado, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +21.0%! Since my introduction of this system two weeks ago, the results are 14-1 for +11.4 units, with Colorado’s upset of Baltimore on Sunday snapping the 14-game winning streak.
System Match: BOSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a fine week of 12-10 (+3.65 units), moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 291-294 for +66.23 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 11.3%!
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings who are looking to extend winning streaks has been a strong strategy. That strategy fared well again last week. After a 5-11 (-5.25 units) week, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 199-204 for -36.76 units, an R.O.I. of -9.1%. After a 3-5 result (-2.61 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 76-100 for -26.80 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -15.2%.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES, FADE OAKLAND
3+ games – FADE ATLANTA, FADE CLEVELAND
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks, I have not found anything significant on the two-game data, although these did do OK last week. However, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 199-133 for +22.26 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 6.7%. These better bullpen teams had a negative week though, with -1.2 units on a 10-7 performance.
System Matches: MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, DETROIT
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 8/21 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 207-159 for +7.33 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks had a winning 7-5 week and have now gone 102-68 for +22.28 units. The R.O.I. for the season is at 13.1% after the past seven days.
System Matches: 2-games – LA ANGELS, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON
3-games – LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 305-274 (52.7%) for +44.91 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 7.8%.
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1432-1337 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.31 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI, FADE BOSTON, FADE DETROIT, FADE MINNESOTA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS, FADE CHICAGO CUBS, FADE SAN FRANCISCO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE CLEVELAND, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE NY METS, FADE TEXAS, FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE ST LOUIS, FADE COLORADO, FADE SAN DIEGO
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 795-669 (54.3%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +38.18 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 2.8%.
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 402-328 (55.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +36.47 units, for an R.O.I. of 4.9%.
System Match: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 271-125 (68.4%) for +55.55 units and an R.O.I. of 14.0%!
System Match: SAN DIEGO
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 236-188 (55.7%) for +47.99 units and an R.O.I. of 11.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: WASHINGTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 43-37 (+8.4 units, ROI: 10.5%) in their last 80 tries to extend streaks.
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 116-80 (+21.08 units, ROI: 10.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 142-87 in their last 229 tries (+27.88 units, ROI: 12.2%).
System Match: ATLANTA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI (+27), MILWAUKEE (+24), WASHINGTON (+21), PITTSBURGH (+30), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+15), BALTIMORE (+26)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON (+30), SEATTLE (+26), TORONTO (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-LA DODGERS OVER 9 (+0.5), LA ANGELS-OAKLAND OVER 9 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-MILWAUKEE UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), PITTSBURGH-ST LOUIS UNDER 9.5 (-0.8)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (72-64) at (902) CINCINNATI (71-67)
Trend: Chicago trending OVER during the DAY (33-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Cincinnati not as good during the DAY (25-30, -4.53 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI
Trend: Cincinnati trends UNDER during the DAY (22-33 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES is (CIN 7 – CHI 5)
(903) PHILADELPHIA (74-61) at (904) MILWAUKEE (76-59)
Trend: Philadelphia good bet during the DAY (32-21, +4.90 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against LH starters (17-21, -8.95 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee not as good against NL East/West (25-28, -3.80 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trends UNDER as ML underdog (20-36-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(905) MIAMI (69-67) at (906) WASHINGTON (62-75)
Trend: Miami good against Washington this season (10-2 record)
System Match: MIAMI
Trend: Washington profitable as ML underdog (54-68, +19.81 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (28-39, -2.52 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (29-29, +15.84 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
(907) PITTSBURGH (63-73) at (908) ST LOUIS (58-78)
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD Pittsburgh has a 9-3 record vs. St. Louis this season
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh slight UNDER in DAY games (24-27 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Pittsburgh trending OVER against LH starters (26-16 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St. Louis better during the DAY (26-21 record)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St. Louis slight OVER in HOME games (35-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(909) ATLANTA (90-45) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (83-52)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL teams (64-25, +21.92 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER against NL Central/West (34-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAD good at HOME (46-24, +7.37 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD not as good during the DAY (20-20, -9.55 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
(911) SAN FRANCISCO (70-66) at (912) SAN DIEGO (64-73)
Trend: San Francisco not as good during the DAY (28-30, -9.32 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO
Trend: San Diego trending UNDER a couple of ways (18-25 O/U during the DAY, 27-38 O/U at HOME)
System Match: UNDER
(913) BOSTON (70-66) at (914) KANSAS CITY (42-95)
Trend: Boston pretty good against AL Central/West (31-26 record)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston more OVER against RH starters (55-41 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City trending OVER a couple of ways (37-29 O/U at HOME, 30-21 O/U vs AL East/West)
System Match: OVER
(915) DETROIT (62-74) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (53-83)
Trend: Detroit more UNDER in DAY games (27-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Chicago slight UNDER against LH starters (14-19 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(917) MINNESOTA (71-65) at (918) TEXAS (75-60)
Trend: Minnesota not great on the ROAD (31-36, -8.53 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Texas good against AL Central/East (32-21, +4.58 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas good record during the DAY (30-21)
System Match: TEXAS
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (64-72) at (920) OAKLAND (41-95)
Trend: LAA trending OVER in division games (24-14 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: LAA bad against LH starters (13-22, -16.23 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS
Trend: Oakland bad during the DAY (10-45, -29.08 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND
Trend: Oakland trends UNDER in division games (15-24 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(921) TAMPA BAY (82-54) at (922) CLEVELAND (66-70)
Trend: Tampa Bay slight UNDER in AWAY games (29-34 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not great as ML underdog (27-35, -1.61 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland heavy UNDER at HOME (22-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(923) NEW YORK-AL (67-69) at (924) HOUSTON (77-60)
Trend: NYY bad at NIGHT (40-47, -13.33 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES
Trend: Houston better at NIGHT (52-39 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at HOME (38-29 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(925) SEATTLE (77-58) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (62-74)
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER during the DAY (20-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle slight UNDER in NL games (17-22 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not great against AL teams (17-25, -14.25 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: NYM trending UNDER at HOME (22-42 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
(927) TORONTO (74-62) at (928) COLORADO (50-85)
Trend: Toronto good in interleague play (29-16, +7.55 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Toronto trending UNDER against RH starters (44-58 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Colorado bad against RH starters (31-61, -18.30 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
(929) BALTIMORE (84-51) at (930) ARIZONA (70-66)
Trend: Baltimore trending OVER on the ROAD (35-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Arizona not as good during the DAY (24-25, -2.86 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona trends UNDER at HOME (26-38 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/4)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/4)
