VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, August 10
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 10, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher: BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA, TORONTO, TAMPA BAY
AVOID/FADE all better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher
Highly priced better bullpen teams were just 11-9 this past seven days and lost another -8.81 units. Now, in games this season through Sunday, August 6, in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher, that team now owns a 195-113 record, but for -64.55 units. This is an R.O.I. of -21%!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE BOSTON
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle
When the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team is less than 20, these big favorites have gone just 45-49 for -65.82 units! Even though the R.O.I. on this system is shrinking steadily, for the season, it remains at -70%!
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA, FADE BOSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a phenomenal 19-8 (+14.15 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 264-259 for +67.36 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12.9%!
System Match: BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
After an 8-8 (+2.44 units) week, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 178-174 for -31.08 units, an R.O.I. of -8.8%. After a 6-4 result (+3.74 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-84 for -17.51 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -11.4%.
System Matches: 2-game – FADE DETROIT, 3-game – FADE HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 170-110 for +28.5 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 10.2%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Updating the results since 7/31 of when on two-game losing streaks, the teams with better SM bullpen ratings in a matchup have gone 173-132 for +9.94 units. Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 84-56 for +18.13 units. The R.O.I. on this system remains 13%.
System Matches: 2-game – BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1427-1334 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE DETROIT
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON, FADE TORONTO
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH, FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE DETROIT
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 44-46 (-19.3 units, ROI: -21.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON (+41), COLORADO (+74), KANSAS CITY (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NONE
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-PITTSBURGH UNDER 10 (-0.56), KANSAS CITY-BOSTON UNDER 10.5 (-0.84)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>>See situational records for each team.
(901) ATLANTA (72-40) at (902) PITTSBURGH (51-63)
Trend: Atlanta dominant against NL competition (49-20, +16.30 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Pittsburgh decent bet against NL East/West (24-23, +8.45 units)
System Match: PITTSBURGH
Trend: Pittsburgh more UNDER in DAY games (20-25 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
(903) WASHINGTON (50-65) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (63-52)
Trend: Washington better bet on the ROAD (28-31, +16.65 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at NIGHT (25-40, -1.86 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at NIGHT (33-34, -10.78 units)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
(905) COLORADO (45-69) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (67-46)
Trend: Colorado bad against NL West (7-21, -9.95 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO
Trend: LAD not as good against LH starters (16-18, -13.60 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (51-27, +9.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(907) HOUSTON (66-49) at (908) BALTIMORE (70-44)
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (35-24, +8.41 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Baltimore good against AL competition (52-30, +22.22 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore 2nd best in MLB as ML underdog (29-21, +15.04 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
(909) MINNESOTA (60-56) at (910) DETROIT (51-63)
Trend: Detroit good bet against division (20-13, +9.75 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit trending OVER in NIGHT games (34-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
(911) TORONTO (65-51) at (912) CLEVELAND (55-60)
Trend: Toronto good against AL Central/West (32-18, +5.55 units)
System Match: TORONTO
Trend: Cleveland not good bet as ML underdog (18-28, -7.40 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(913) KANSAS CITY (37-79) at (914) BOSTON (59-55)
Trend: Kansas City bad bet at NIGHT (20-51, -22.41 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
Trend: Boston good record against AL Central/West teams (25-19)
System Match: BOSTON
Trend: Boston trending OVER (25-18 O/U against AL Central/West, 44-38 O/U against RH starters)
System Match: OVER
(915) ST LOUIS (50-65) at (916) TAMPA BAY (69-47)
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (27-45, -28.57 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis trending UNDER on the ROAD (24-30 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Tampa Bay good at HOME (38-20, +6.20 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay best team in MLB as ML favorite (62-32, +10.20 units)
System Match: TAMPA BAY
Trend: Tampa Bay trending OVER at HOME (34-23 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Mon 8/7-Thu 8/10
Trend: Pittsburgh is 1-10 (9.09%, -7.40 units) in the last 11 games vs. Atlanta
The R.O.I. on this trend is -67.3%.
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/11)
