VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, August 17
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 17, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better rated bullpen teams for today’s action that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher: ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND, BOSTON
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games this season through Wednesday 8/16 in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team now owns a 116-80 record, but for -76.22 units. This is an R.O.I. of -38.9%! These are in essence the definition of overpriced favorites, teams that are marginally better than the opponent but may be getting a boost in the line because of a large starting pitcher edge, a bullpen edge, or an injury or two.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
My most recent bullpen ratings discovery has found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent are 105-41 for +19.45 units as of Wednesday 8/16. In analyzing my own strategies for wagering games, I kept realizing that I was rarely backing teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, etc., and not fading teams like Oakland, Kansas City, etc., enough. As it turns out, some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this newfound discovery angle for the season is +13.3%!
System Match: SEATTLE
Better bullpen underdog teams have been solid
A frequent and profitable system arises when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings is playing as an underdog (or pick ‘em). After a rare off week of 5-9 (-2.84 units) performance over the last week, moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season are now 269-269 for +64.52 units. The R.O.I. of this angle remains a healthy 12%!
System Matches: ST LOUIS, CLEVELAND
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup are now 182-183 for -35.48 units, an R.O.I. of -9.7%. After a 0-3 result (-3.18 units), worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks now have a record of 69-87 for -20.69 units. The R.O.I. on that system continues to produce at -13.3%.
System Match: 2-game – FADE ARIZONA
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
When looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I have tracked that these teams have gone 184-121 for +26.97 units, an impressive R.O.I. of 8.9%.
System Match: LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1429-1334 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -167.88 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match: FADE ARIZONA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1675 (43.4%) for -165.79 units and an R.O.I. of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE, FADE BOSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO, FADE LA DODGERS, FADE KANSAS CITY, FADE WASHINGTON
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 157-73 (+26.28 units, ROI: 11.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Match: LA DODGERS
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 134-82 in their last 216 tries (+28.97 units, ROI: 13.4%).
System Match: LA DODGERS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS (+41), CLEVELAND (+42)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY METS-ST LOUIS UNDER 10.5 (-1.0)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.>> See situational records for each team.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (55-66) at (952) ST LOUIS (54-67)
Trend: NYM trending UNDER as ML favorite (34-42-3 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: NYM not good against NL Central/West (24-29, -14.83 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS
Trend: St Louis trending OVER at HOME (32-26 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: St Louis not bad bet as ML underdog (19-20, +3.15 units)
System Match: ST LOUIS
Trend: St Louis bad at NIGHT (31-47, -26.92 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS
(953) ARIZONA (61-60) at (954) SAN DIEGO (58-63)
Trend: Arizona better at NIGHT (39-35, +4.96 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: San Diego has 0 runs scored against RHP Zac Gallen this season (13 innings pitched over 2 games)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
Trend: San Diego not good against RH starters (36-46, -29.09 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO
(955) MILWAUKEE (65-56) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (73-46)
Trend: Milwaukee not good against NL West/East (20-27, -8.00 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee better against RH starters (49-36, +9.12 units)
System Match: MILWAUKEE
Trend: Milwaukee trending UNDER as ML underdog (17-31-2 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: LAD good at NIGHT (56-27, +14.90 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
Trend: LAD good against RH starters (53-28, +13.20 units)
System Match: LA DODGERS
(957) SEATTLE (65-55) at (958) KANSAS CITY (39-83)
Trend: Seattle trending UNDER during the DAY (16-23 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Seattle trending OVER against AL East/Central (31-20 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Kansas City a little better during the DAY (17-28, -3.60 units)
Trend: Kansas City not good against AL East/West (11-31, -15.12 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY
(959) DETROIT (54-66) at (960) CLEVELAND (58-63)
Trend: Detroit good in division (22-14, +11.57 units)
System Match: DETROIT
Trend: Detroit-Cleveland series is on 5-1 UNDER stretch this season
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland trending UNDER in division (9-27 O/U!)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Cleveland not good as ML underdog (20-31, -7.70 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
Trend: Cleveland not as good against LH starters (18-24, -14.00 units)
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND
(961) BOSTON (63-57) at (962) WASHINGTON (54-67)
Trend: Boston good against LH starters and trends UNDER (21-13 for +7.30 units and 13-20 O/U against LH starters)
System Match: BOSTON, UNDER
Trend: Boston not as good against NL teams (19-23, -7.85 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON
Trend: Washington better during the DAY (26-25, +14.70 units)
System Match: WASHINGTON
Trend: Washington not as good at HOME (26-35, -1.51 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Tue 8/15-Thu 8/17
Trend: FAVORITES are 15-1 (93.75%, +12.4 units) in the last 16 games between Milwaukee & LA Dodgers
The R.O.I. on this trend is 77.5%.
System Matches: LA DODGERS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities,
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/18)
