VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, October 12
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Thursday, October 12, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-12 SU skid (-9.92 units, ROI: -58.4%)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 62-36 SU (22.70 units, ROI: 23.2%) and 54-44 on run lines (18.93 units, ROI: 19.3%) since 2013.
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Stats from last game trends
Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-46 SU (-23.29 units, ROI: -27.1%) and 28-58 on run lines (-21.40 units, ROI: -24.9%) since 2012.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more run are on a 20-25 SU (-8.02 units, ROI: -17.8%) and 19-26 on run lines (-9.62 units, ROI: -21.4%) skid since 2019.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Power surges don’t tend to last in for underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +110 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 9-34 SU (-22.30 units, ROI: -51.9%) and 13-30 on run lines (-31.2 units, ROI: -72.6%) in the follow-up game since 2009.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 107 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 47-60 SU (-36.12 units, ROI: -33.8%) since 2019.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-27 SU (-21.27 units, ROI: -49.5%) and 12-31 on run lines (-22.07 units, ROI: -51.3%) in playoff games.
System Match: FADE ATLANTA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been significant in the divisional round since 2017, as hosts are on a surge of 56-38 SU (6.18 units, ROI: 6.6%) and 51-43 on run lines (13.77 units, ROI: 14.6%) in that span.
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 36-23 SU (16.21 units, ROI: 27.5%).
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +130 (+2 difference, so not much)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA OVER 8.5 (+0.3 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(943) ATLANTA (105-60) at (944) PHILADELPHIA (94-73)
Trend: Atlanta trending OVER on the ROAD (45-34 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Atlanta good at NIGHT (76-38, +7.25 units)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Atlanta is 4-1 against Philadelphia this season with RHP Spencer Strider starting (only loss was last week)
System Match: ATLANTA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER at NIGHT (45-49 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia not as good at HOME this season against Atlanta (2-5 record)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good against RH starters (62-51 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia is 7-3 all-time in Home Postseason closeout games
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
