VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Thursday, October 19
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 19, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): PHILADELPHIA, HOUSTON
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
This season, a frequent and profitable system arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: HOUSTON
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks this season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.”
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
ROAD FAVORITES are on a 5-13 SU skid (-11.47 units, ROI: -63.7%)
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 90-109 SU (-52.59 units, ROI: -26.4%)
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Coming off wins/losses
HOME TEAMS coming off a LOSS in a series game have been good bounce-back options, going 16-14 SU (-1.32 units, ROI: -4.4%) and 17-13 on run lines (6.85 units, ROI: 22.8%) in their L30 tries.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA, PLAY TEXAS
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-37 SU (23.75 units, ROI: 23.5%) and 56-45 on run lines (20.23 units, ROI: 20%) since 2013.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 21-25 SU (-6.72 units, ROI: -14.6%) and 20-26 on run lines (-8.62 units, ROI: -18.7%) skid since 2019.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE HOUSTON
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 36-29 SU (13.66 units, ROI: 21.0%) and 41-24 on run lines (11.08 units, ROI: 17.0%) in playoff games.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 31-29 (+10.80 units, ROI: 18%) since 2018.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA, PLAY HOUSTON
Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 36-54 SU (-21.55 units, ROI: -23.9%).
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA
The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same-series WIN in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 20-30 SU (-14.2 units, ROI: -28.9%) since 2015.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA, FADE HOUSTON
Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 23-15 SU (+14.5 units, ROI: -38.2%) & 27-11 RL (+8.45 units, ROI: -22.2%) run since 2003 in the LCS round.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 9-26 SU (-22.75 units, ROI: -65%) and 10-25 (-18.9 units, ROI: -54%) on run lines since 2005
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
On Game 4 totals, OVERS have been HUGE since 2006, going 26-7-1 for +18.3 units, a ROI of 53.8%.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in HOU-TEX
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 311-286 (52.1%) for +39.03 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 813-694 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.06 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.7%.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 55-54 (-22.18 units, ROI: -20.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (9 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -135 (+9 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.4 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA-ARIZONA UNDER 9 (-0.46 difference), HOUSTON-TEXAS UNDER 9.5 (-0.3 difference)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(905) PHILADELPHIA (97-73) at (906) ARIZONA (89-80)
Trend: Arizona trending UNDER at HOME (32-45 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Arizona pretty good against LH starters (29-21, +7.48 units)
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: Arizona is 2-0 with RHP Brandon Pfaadt this postseason
System Match: ARIZONA
Trend: ROAD teams are 6-3 on the run line in season series
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia good during the DAY (38-25, +5.90 units)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
Trend: Philadelphia slight UNDER vs RH starters (53-56 O/U)
System Match: UNDER
Trend: Philadelphia leading season series (6-3 record)
System Match: PHILADELPHIA
(907) HOUSTON (94-75) at (908) TEXAS (97-73)
Trend: Houston is leading season series (10-6 record)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Eight of the last 10 games in head-to-head season series have gone OVER
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston much better on the ROAD (54-30, +19.32 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston trending OVER at NIGHT (61-51 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston good record against LH starters (28-22)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Texas dominant at HOME (51-32, +4.71 units)
System Match: TEXAS
Trend: Texas is 1-6 all-time in games when playing against RHP Jose Urquidy
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: Texas has a 10-5 record all-time in ALCS games
System Match: TEXAS
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
