VSiN Analytics MLB Report for Tuesday, October 10
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games on Tuesday, October 10, 2023. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system this season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ‘em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%.
System Matches: HOUSTON, BALTIMORE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: 4-games – FADE TEXAS
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There weren’t many plays in the season’s final two weeks, but those teams were 7-1 for +6.45 units, a strong close to the campaign.
System Matches: BALTIMORE
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
The most vulnerable HOME FAVORITES in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2000 have been those in the -120 to -144 money line range, as they are just 88-104 SU (-48.15 units, ROI: -25.1%)
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA, FADE TEXAS
Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 60-36 SU (20.50 units, ROI: 21.4%) and 52-44 on run lines (16.57 units, ROI: 17.3%) since 2013.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS
HOME FIELD has proven advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 73-53 SU (0.45 units, ROI: 0.4%) and 67-59 on run lines (18.26 units, ROI: 14.5%) since ’15.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA
Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on an 18-24 SU (-9.04 units, ROI: -21.5%) and 17-25 on run lines (-10.3 units, ROI: -24.5%) skid since ’19.
System Matches: *Conflict between Texas and Baltimore*
Teams playing as UNDERDOGS in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 24-44 SU (-15.12 units, ROI: -22.2%) since 2016.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 104 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 47-57 SU (-32.70 units, ROI: -31.4%) since ’19.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 16-24 SU (-17.85 units, ROI: -44.6%) and 12-28 on run lines (-18.45 units, ROI: -46.1%) in playoff games.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 35-25 SU (16.98 units, ROI: 28.3%) and 40-20 on run lines (15.18 units, ROI: 25.3%) in playoff games.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON
Totals angles
The last two MLB postseasons have been amazing for OVER bettors, as although the outright record on totals is split 37-37, OVERS have produced a return of +21.4 units, an ROI of 28.9%. Total vigs have been heavily shaded towards UNDERS. In particular, games with totals set at 7.5 or higher have gone OVER at a 25-18 rate, +15.5 units for an ROI of 36.0%.
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been significant in the divisional round since 2017, as hosts are on a surge of 54-36 SU (6.70 units, ROI: 7.4%) and 49-41 on run lines (13.41 units, ROI: 14.9%) in that span.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS, PLAY MINNESOTA
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host has been trailing or was even in the series. Those teams are on a surge of 19-10 SU (3.80 units, ROI: 13.1%) and 18-11 on run lines (9.26 units, ROI: 31.9%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA
Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same-series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 34-22 SU (15.21 units, ROI: 27.2%).
System Matches: *Conflict between Texas and Baltimore*
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1434-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -171.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2898-2517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -357.7 units and an R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS, FADE MINNESOTA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 54-54 (-23.18 units, ROI: -21.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE TEXAS
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +114 (+7 difference)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MINNESOTA -135 (+5 difference)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE-TEXAS UNDER 9 (-0.7)
MLB Top Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(923) HOUSTON (91-73) at (924) MINNESOTA (90-76)
Trend: Houston is used to postseason play (made it to ALCS or WS every year since 2017)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston better during the DAY (31-22, +2.35 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Houston slight OVER against AL Central/East (36-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Houston good on the ROAD (51-30, +16.15 units)
System Match: HOUSTON
Trend: Minnesota good at HOME (49-34 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota not as good during the DAY (35-36, -14.17 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA
Trend: Minnesota leading season series (5-3 record)
System Match: MINNESOTA
(925) BALTIMORE (101-63) at (926) TEXAS (94-72)
Trend: Baltimore more OVER on the ROAD (45-30 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Baltimore is 11-7 all-time in ALDS games
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Baltimore better at NIGHT (67-39, +25.76 units)
System Match: BALTIMORE
Trend: Texas slight OVER vs AL East/Central (36-28 O/U)
System Match: OVER
Trend: Texas not as good bet on the ROAD or at NIGHT (44-41, -2.75 units on ROAD / 55-48, -5.78 units at NIGHT)
System Match: FADE TEXAS
Trend: HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES this season (TEX 5 – BAL 3)
Top Head-To-Head Series Trends
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article 20 MLB second-half series with notable head-to-head trends.
NO QUALIFYING HEAD-TO-HEAD PLAYS TODAY
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING POST-RIVALRY SERIES PLAYS TODAY
