2024 World Series Futures Odds
(This article originally appeared in the 2024 MLB Betting Primer – get your copy here)
When it comes to MLB futures markets, I tend to take a more passive approach. Why? Because you’ve got a good chance at finding better odds on a team at some point during the season than you will at the start of the season. Barring a ridiculous start, like the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays, who started the season 20-3 after 23 games, the highs and lows of a long season lead to a lot of buy points on teams.
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Another reason is because injuries happen a lot and the individual nature of baseball can make it extremely hard to replace a star player or even an above average one. I certainly hold off until Spring Training is close to over because I want to know a team is getting to Opening Day healthy. Furthermore, with what I mentioned above, a star player could go out early and come back after the All-Star Break and make a big impact at a much better number than what I could’ve gotten prior to the season.
Even if you aren’t betting into a preseason market, it is always good to see what the sportsbooks have to say with the odds. That is true of World Series odds, but also other futures and awards markets, which I will dive deeper into with my “Premium” MLB Betting Guide over at VSiN.com in the month of March.
For now, let’s look at the World Series odds and add some context.
2024 World Series Odds
Odds as of Feb. 29
- Los Angeles Dodgers +350
- Atlanta Braves +450
- Houston Astros +800
- New York Yankees +1000
- Baltimore Orioles +1200
- Texas Rangers +1400
- Philadelphia Phillies +1500
- Toronto Blue Jays +2000
- Seattle Mariners +2000
- Minnesota Twins +2000
- Chicago Cubs +2500
- Arizona Diamondbacks +3500
- Tampa Bay Rays +3500
- St. Louis Cardinals +3500
- Cincinnati Reds +4500
- New York Mets +4500
- Boston Red Sox +5000
- San Francisco Giants +5500
- Detroit Tigers +6000
- San Diego Padres +6000
- Cleveland Guardians +7000
- Miami Marlins +7000
- Milwaukee Brewers +9000
- Kansas City Royals +13000
- Los Angeles Angels +15000
- Pittsburgh Pirates +15000
- Washington Nationals +20000
- Chicago White Sox +25000
- Colorado Rockies +40000
- Oakland Athletics +40000
The Dodgers went on quite a spending spree this offseason, adding Shohei Ohtani (won’t pitch this season), Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernandez, and James Paxton through free agency, plus Tyler Glasnow via trade. They “won” the offseason in a big way by securing Ohtani and Yamamoto, so they are the rightful favorites.
Obviously the Dodgers and Braves cannot both play for the World Series title, so the AL is interesting with the next four on the odds board and seven of the next eight.
Recent World Series Betting History
Baseball has the most volatility of any postseason. The Rangers won the World Series last season after going into the year at +5000. The Diamondbacks were a surprise NL winner, coming into the season at +12500 to win the World Series.
According to Sports Odds History, six teams entered the 2023 season under +1000 – Astros +600, Braves +750, Yankees +800, Dodgers +800, Mets +900, Padres +900. Three of those teams didn’t even make the playoffs.
In 2022, the Astros were +1000 entering the season, making them tied for the third choice behind the Dodgers (+500) and Blue Jays (+900).
In 2021, the Braves were +1000, fifth behind the Dodgers (+350), Yankees (+550), Padres (+900), and White Sox (+900).
In 2019, the Nationals were +1600 entering the season, behind the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs, and Indians.
I could go on, but you have to go back to 2016 to find the last time that the favorite won the World Series and that was the Cubs (+660) over the Indians (+1700).
The Rangers were a true long shot by historical MLB odds to win the World Series. In recent history, while the playoffs are high-variance, good teams are good teams over 162 games more often than not and find their way into the playoffs, even if they don’t win it all.
That’s why it’s hard to bet preseason MLB futures. The Rangers were at their peak in the offseason after getting off to a great start and so were the 2022 Astros, but the 2021 Braves were around +5000 at the start of August. The 2019 Nationals were in the +6000 range in June of their World Series winning season and their price going into the Divisional Round of +1350 wasn’t that far off of the preseason +1600.
World Series Futures Betting Tips
Depth is critical: Aaron Judge is an elite hitter, but he missed 56 games last season. The Yankees were 57-49 when he played and 25-31 when he didn’t. There were other issues with the team, but Judge covered up a lot of them.
The Rays, on the other hand, lost 60% of their starting rotation, Wander Franco, and others, and still won 99 games. Deep teams and smart front offices find a way. Not every team can do that.
Looking at 2024, can a team like the Phillies survive if Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola go down for a long period of time? Even an oblique injury can be a 6-8 week thing. What if Julio Rodriguez gets hit by a pitch and fractures his wrist or gets a fluke broken hamate bone? Are the Mariners going to be strong enough to compete offensively?
Top-heavy teams are a major risk in Major League Baseball because one or two injuries can make all the difference over a prolonged stretch of games. I’m not saying you want to write in Sharpie that you’re staying away, but you have to consider those possibilities.
Look for buy points on the schedule: When the Braves made their run in 2021, they started August at +5000 and were down to +1300 by September. They went 18-8 in August with a really favorable 15-game stretch against Washington, Cincinnati, Washington, Miami, and Baltimore. They were 52-55 entering the month and by the time they reached August 22, they were 68-57 and went from five games back in the division to 4.5 games up.
If you can find a good team that has underperformed running into a really juicy part of the schedule, that is the time that you want to buy.
Also, to the point above, if a player got hurt early and the team was able to hang on and tread water, the boost from his return could be a good time to buy.
Treat your bet like an investment: The goal should be to gain equity on your bet. You’d like to be able to get in at +2000 when the team is down to +1200 or +1000 by midseason. If a team you are holding has seen its odds improve, somebody else’s odds have not and that could be a spot to add to your portfolio with another team that maybe went from +1000 to +2000.
It is a seven-month hold before the season, meaning that money is tied up until the end of the postseason. Having an advantageous position opens up other options for you or the choice to just let it ride and hope you got it right when all the dust settles. Given that your money is tied to one particular outcome, trying to diversify can be a good idea.
