Washington Nationals 2025 preview
The “Flags Fly Forever” sentiment is what has kept Washington Nationals fans going over the last few seasons. Washington did not finish in last place in the NL East for the first time since 2019, but finished fourth and 24 games out of first place. It was the fourth time in four seasons that the Nationals lost at least 91 games and the second straight season with a 71-91 outcome.
In lost seasons, which the Nationals project to have again based on their odds and win total line, you’d like to see some growth out of key players. To a degree, that happened, as CJ Abrams elevated his numbers relative to 2023 and James Wood emerged on the scene as a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. Luis Garcia Jr. also had a monster breakout season with 3.1 fWAR, providing offensive and defensive value
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Now those players need to continue that trajectory, while also adding top prospect Dylan Crews to the mix. This is a painstakingly slow rebuild in D.C., as the team went all-in for the 2019 title and then lost stars like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg over the next few seasons.
There are a ton of intriguing pieces and parts to this roster and this organization, but probably not the makings of a good baseball team. After all, the offense ranked 24th in wOBA and wRC+, while the pitching staff was 23rd in ERA. But, the staff was also ninth in FIP and that could lead to some noteworthy improvement on that side of the ledger.
2025 Washington Nationals Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 23)
World Series: +30000
NL Pennant: +10000
NL East: +6500
Win Total: 72.5 (-110/-110)
Make Playoffs: Yes +850 / No -1400
Washington Nationals Preview: Offense
The Nationals head into the regular season with just two position players on the plus side of 30. One is Josh Bell, who apparently wants to elevate the baseball more this season. If that happens, it could be huge for the Washington offense. In Bell’s only season with a FB% over 35%, he hit 37 home runs. That 2019 campaign was a long time ago, but a reunion with Bell is a good idea for this team. He can be a veteran leader to help mentor the young outfielders and could net a nice trade piece at the Deadline if he has a good season.
Bell’s Hard Hit% dipped under 40% for the first time since 2018 and he actually had his best season by HH% in 2021, his only full season as a Nat. I’m cautiously optimistic here and, if nothing else, Bell walks a lot. That should help this offense after finishing 24th in BB%. Bell joins a guy in Wood who did his part with the BB%, drawing a walk in 11.6% of his plate appearances as a rookie with a .342 wOBA and a 120 wRC+.
Wood, who hit 26 homers in 2023 across High-A and Double-A, hit nine in 336 PA to start his MLB career, but he showed a lot of contact authority with a double-digit Barrel% and a 52% Hard Hit%. Ironically, like Bell, Wood needs to elevate the baseball more. I think hitting coach Darnell Coles could be on the hot seat if we don’t see some of those changes.
But, maybe we do. Abrams hit the ball in the air more last season and pulled it more often, leading to a 16-point bump in wRC+ and a 16-point bump in wOBA, spearheaded by a 21-point increase in SLG. He also stole 31 bases with his 20 homers. Abrams has above-average bat speed. I don’t think we’re done seeing his offensive upside.
Similarly, Garcia Jr. doubled his homer total from nine to 18 and also had seven more doubles in 46 more plate appearances by hitting the ball in the air a little more. He also had 22 stolen bases. The Nationals led the league in swipes, which is why it’s surprising that they weren’t able to generate more offense. There were a lot of players that had some gains and Washington was actually 10th in plate appearances with RISP.
What is odd about that is they were 27th with a .284 wOBA with the bases empty. Their 73 solo homers were also the fewest in baseball. I think we see this offense improve in a lot of areas this season. Nathaniel Lowe is a really nice addition from the Rangers, with six years of above-average offense to his name. Jose Tena, acquired from the Guardians in the Lane Thomas trade, hit well at virtually every minor league level. The bench is improved with Amed Rosario and I’ll talk more about Dylan Crews soon.
I like this group a lot more than I expected to and I think they could drag themselves a lot closer to being a league-average offense, which would be a big leap, but one I think is possible.
Washington Nationals Preview: Pitching
Addition by subtraction might be the strongest asset this season for the Nationals. Credit to Patrick Corbin for being a good soldier through the final year of his contract. He finished with a 5.62 ERA and a 5.53 xERA, though he did post a 4.41 FIP over 147.2 innings of work. Corbin’s efforts allowed the Nationals to limit innings for other guys and now the subpar work from the veteran southpaw will go to somebody else.
They won’t go to Josiah Gray until after the All-Star Break, as he only made two starts last season and then needed Tommy John surgery. The Nationals will get Cade Cavalli back from that same procedure, as he made three starts to finish out 2024 as a positive step in his return to action. He only threw 8.1 innings, but he looked pretty crisp after missing all of 2023. Cavalli, if healthy, is pretty clearly the best prospect arm for the Nationals.
Ceiling seems to be limited with the starting staff, but MacKenzie Gore and DJ Herz look like guys capable of being league-average or better arms. Gore made 32 starts last season with a 3.90 ERA, 4.20 xERA, and a 3.53 FIP. Walks are penalized in the xERA calculation, so that’s what hurt Gore the most, but a .340 BABIP against didn’t help. That’s why he had the ERA-FIP gap that he had, along with a 68.1% LOB%.
Herz also had an ERA-FIP gap, as he had a 4.16 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 3.71 FIP in his 88.2 innings over 19 starts. For a guy with enormous walk rates in the minors, his 9.4% BB% at the MLB level was a big upgrade. I don’t know how sustainable that is long-term, especially with a below-average Chase Rate, but he threw nearly 61% first-pitch strikes, a trait that was severely lacking in the minors.
Mitchell Parker was another guy who was hurt by sequencing luck and bad defense, posting a 4.29 ERA with a 4.37 xERA and a 3.85 FIP. Jake Irvin made 33 starts and led the team with 187.2 innings, as he had some moments of brilliance surrounding major home run issues. But, I do think there is a lot to work with here, including a prospect I haven’t given up on yet in Jackson Rutledge.
The Nationals were -22 in Outs Above Average and -21 in Defensive Runs Saved. And that’s with Jacob Young playing an elite CF with 20 OAA. That metric hated Abrams’ performance at SS, accounting for -17 OAA. Wood also needs to improve as a defender. Nationals pitchers also allowed the third-highest batting average with RISP, which didn’t help.
This is a rebuilt bullpen in a lot of ways, with Jorge Lopez slated to close. Shinnosuke Ogasawara from Japan is an interesting arm. Colin Poche from the Rays is also in on a minor league deal. I don’t love this group at all. Trades and losses from last season really stripped this unit down. I do think it’ll be a struggle for Davey Martinez to find high-leverage outs.
Washington Nationals Player to Watch
OF Dylan Crews
Crews got 31 games late last season and struggled out of the gate to a .218/.288/.353 slash with a .283 wOBA and an 80 wRC+. But, he’s a kid who has swung a solid bat at every level of the minor leagues and he played well defensively in a small sample. The No. 2 pick in 2023 out of LSU is projected by ZiPS and most of the other systems to fall just shy of being a league average hitter, but a 15 HR, 25 SB guy that plays good to competent defense. He projects better in RF, which is where he played 30 games this past season.
I’m curious to see how the bat develops. To this point, he’s shown more doubles and triples power than home run power, but that’s usually last to come for a hitter. His stolen base success rates are quite high and he was 12-of-15 for the Nats last season. If it all clicks, he elevates the ceiling of this offense a good bit.
Washington Nationals Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
Consider me bullish on the Nationals for 2025. Bell and Lowe are professional hitters to place into a lineup that remains raw, but very toolsy. The progress that Abrams made last season makes me hopeful that we see some batted ball adjustments from Wood and others to produce a little bit more power production. Washington did lose Thomas’s 28 steals, but brought back a lot of their baserunning prowess and Crews is a guy who can fill that void.
On the pitching side, the bullpen worries me greatly, but the rotation is upgraded with the departure of Corbin and I think a minimum two-win improvement, even in the strong NL East, is not a big ask at all. Washington was on a 73ish win pace before finishing 10-16 in September and I think they’ll be able to do better than that this season.
Pick: Over 72.5
