Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 1
The long layoff between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series between the Yankees and Dodgers has given networks and pundits a whole lot of time to talk about the incredible talent on both teams and all of the storylines for the two franchises. On Friday night, we’ll finally get Game 1 and see it all play out on the field.
Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty are the listed starters at Dodger Stadium and the line for Game 1 does favor the Dodgers. We do have a high total, relatively speaking, for this year’s playoffs at 8.5. With six likely Hall of Fame hitters between the two lineups, you can see why.
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I wrote a Yankees vs. Dodgers series preview earlier this week, but now let’s narrow the focus to Game 1.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 8.5)
Friday, 8:08 p.m. ET
The -130 at time of writing comes from DraftKings, which is among the highest in the market, due to their 20-cent spread on MLB lines. Be sure to take advantage of any bonuses or promotions that you can for this series, as we have two very visible and prominent teams, so sportsbooks are going to try their best to drum up as much interest and new business as possible.
As far as the game itself goes, the Yankees do appear to have a starting pitcher advantage, which will be a persistent theme throughout the series. Both offenses are quite strong, though I do give the edge to the Dodgers for having greater balance 1 through 9. But, you’ve got Cole vs. Flaherty here in Game 1 and I could argue that the Yankees have the better starter in 2024 and current form terms than the Dodgers in every game.
Flaherty did have an excellent regular season and was a highly sought after trade candidate. He finished with a 3.17 ERA, 3.51 xERA, and a 3.41 FIP over 162 innings of work, the most he’s thrown since 2019. Here in the playoffs, Flaherty has had one really good start and a couple rough ones, especially his Game 5 showing against the Mets when he gave up eight runs in three innings.
In 15.1 playoff innings, Flaherty has given up 12 runs on 15 hits. What stands out the most to me is that he only has eight strikeouts against seven walks out of 67 batters faced. This is a guy who had a 194/38 K/BB ratio during the regular season. His velocity was noticeable down in that G5 NLCS start. He’ll be pitching a week after that start here, so he does have a little bit of extra rest here, but I’m not sure how much that means. Frankly, I won’t know until we see him out there on the bump.
Cole had a “meh” start of his own against the Royals to go along with a good one and really had to battle through his lone start in the ALCS, as he gave up two runs on six hits and walked four in 4.1 innings against the Guardians. He, too, has a noticeable lack of strikeouts with 12 out of 72 batters faced. His K% was down this season anyway and has been down the last two seasons after running five straight years at 32.4% or higher.
The Dodgers posted a .395 OBP in the NLCS, so they were on base nearly 40% of the time. The Yankees batted .250/.338/.470 against a stronger pitcher staff, and even got to what was the best bullpen in baseball during the regular season. These bats are no joke and these two starters come in with some baggage and some worries.
As is often the case in the playoffs, live betting is the way to go. Let’s see where Flaherty’s velocity is. Let’s see what Cole’s control and command look like against a relentless and deep lineup. Is either pitcher generating whiffs? If you’re not going to have much margin for error in the strikeout or swing and miss departments, it’s going to be very difficult against these lineups.
My favorite bet here is a player prop and it is Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 Hits Allowed at -115. Cole has allowed 7, 6, and 6 in his three playoffs starts and now faces the best lineup he’s seen in the postseason by a very, very large margin. Despite the four walks in his Game 2 ALCS start back on October 15, Cole is typically very stingy with the walks, but the stuff doesn’t look as overpowering this season as it has in the past. He’s had his lowest SwStr% marks since 2017 over the last two seasons. The Dodgers should put balls in play.
And like I said, look for live betting openings once we see how both guys look. Despite my player prop pick, I do lean with the Yankees based on price as a plus-money underdog, but I’d rather see what these teams and pitchers look like early with the huge stakes and the lengthy layoff.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-115)
