Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
One of the most popular bets in MLB these days is the YRFI and NRFI, mostly because you only have to sweat for about 15 minutes. The YRFI was the most profitable side for the first 2 months of the season, but recently we’ve seen the NRFI make a big comeback hitting at over 55% so far in June. I’ve posted a 20-16 record with my writeups for VSiN, and I’m excited to keep offering my top edges in this market every weekend. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, June 16th.
Top MLB Resources:
All odds via DraftKings
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
It would not be an NRFI best bets article without including the king of the ocean. Miami has posted a remarkable 47-22 NRFI record this season, a rate of 68.1%. What’s more impressive is their average odds are only -122, which implies a nearly 55% hit rate, so you can see a sizable value gap still exists with these bets. The reason for the Marlins’ remarkable NRFI run is a little bit of luck, but it’s also a dismal offense and elite starting pitching. Miami has posted a 15.9% scoring rate (11-for-69) in the opening frame this season, the lowest in MLB.
Today we are getting another favorable price for Sandy Alcantara, who despite his elevated overall numbers has recorded a 12-1 NRFI record this season with just a .152 batting average against in the first inning. He will be opposed by Trevor Williams, who is not too far behind with an 11-2 NRFI mark and just .174 batting average against in the opening frame. Considering the pitching matchup and the odds associated with this bet, I’m slightly suspicious, but I’m trying not to overthink it considering the circumstances involved.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Sandy Alcantara vs:
Lane Thomas (0-for-15)
Luis Garcia (1-for-15)
Joe Meneses (1-for-7, HR)
Trevor Williams vs:
Luis Arraez (1-for-6)
Jorge Soler (0-for-4)
Bryan De La Cruz (2-for-7, HR)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
I was on this bet yesterday, it lost, but then both teams scored a combined 6 runs in the second inning, so I feel comfortable going back to this again today with another suspect pitching matchup. Let’s start with Dinelson Lamet, who has posted a 2-1 NRFI record through his first three starts with Colorado despite a .400 batting average allowed in the opening frame. Overall, his ERA is 12.46 on the road this season, and he draws an elite Braves lineup that has posted a 47% scoring rate in the first inning at home (17-for-36).
Jared Shuster takes the ball for Atlanta, and like Lamet, his numbers are nothing to write home about. His NRFI record is 4-3 this season, and his first inning xFIP is 8.83, the highest of any pitcher on the board today with at least three starts. Surprisingly, the Rockies have an above-average first-inning scoring rate on the road this season at 33% (12-for-36). Now Shuster does get the advantage of facing this Colorado lineup for the first time, but the Rockies are hitting lefties at a decent clip this month, with a .333 BABIP in the first inning.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Dinelson Lamet vs:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (1-for-3, HR)
Ozzie Albies (2-for-4)
Austin Riley (0-for-4)
Jared Shuster vs:
Jurickson Profar (never faced)
Ezequiel Tovar (never faced)
Ryan McMahon (never faced)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-145)
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