Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
One of the most popular bets in MLB these days is the YRFI and NRFI, mostly because you only have to sweat for about 15 minutes. The YRFI was profitable for the first two months of the season, which correlated with an uptick in overall scoring. In June the tide started to turn, and the NRFI became the more profitable side, hitting at just under 55% so far this month.
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I will write up my best bets in this market every weekend for VSiN. My record so far this season is 22-20. Keep reading to find out my top looks for Friday, June 23rd.
All odds via DraftKings
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
This game checks all my boxes for early runs with two elite offenses and two subpar starting pitchers. AJ Smith-Shawver and Luke Weaver have a combined 6-7 NRFI record this season. It’s fair to say Weaver has gotten a tad unlucky, with an xFIP (4.18) nearly two runs lower than his actual FIP (6.00) in the first inning. However, his .392 batting average against leaves something to be desired. Smith-Shawver is making his third career start, so it’s hard to draw anything significant from the data, but there is a big gap between his FIP (3.27) and his xFIP (7.23) in the first inning, which is a strong YRFI indicator.
One thing is for certain in this game. Both lineups are built to score early runs. The Reds have the best home rate in the league, scoring a first-inning run in over 50% of their games at Great American Ballpark (20-for-38). Meanwhile, the Braves have been much better at home this season, but they still have a very respectable 34.3% scoring rate on the road (12-for-35) which is well above the MLB average. Be sure to shop around this number, as there are some prominent sportsbooks still offering between -130 and -140 for this bet at the time of publication.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
AJ Smith-Shawver vs:
TJ Friedl (never faced)
Matt McClain (never faced)
Jonathan India (never faced)
Luke Weaver vs:
Ronald Acuna Jr. (4-for-11, HR)
Ozzie Albies (5-for-15, HR)
Austin Riley (2-for-5, 2 HR)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-150)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
I’ve reached the point in the regular season where I feel comfortable saying the Marlins need to be strongly considered for a daily NRFI wager, regardless of the starting pitcher matchup. I know that sounds crazy considering how important the starting pitcher is when it comes to handicapping this wager, but the data is screaming at me not to care. Miami has posted a ludicrous 53-23 NRFI record this season, which is just shy of 70%. Considering the average odds have only been -123, which implies around a 55% probability, you can see why this bet is so valuable in relation to the market.
Today’s matchup features Luis L. Ortiz and Jesus Luzardo on the hill. I feel very comfortable with Luzardo, who has posted a 13-2 NRFI record this season with just a .135 batting average against and 2.46 xFIP in the 1st inning. Ortiz scares me a bit with just a 4-3 NRFI record and xFIP above 5.00 in the opening frame. However, I have to keep relying on the inept Marlins offense playing to their average. Miami has posted a minuscule 13.5% first-inning scoring rate at Loan Depot Park this season (5-for-38) by far the lowest in the league and well below the 32.7% average for home teams.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Luis L. Ortiz vs:
Luis Arraez (never faced)
Jorge Soler (never faced)
Bryan De La Cruz (never faced)
Jesus Luzardo vs:
Ke’Bryan Hayes (never faced)
Andrew McCutchen (0-for-3)
Connor Joe (1-for-2)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
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