Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 4-2 with my best bets last week and improved my record to 26-22 on the season with VSIN writeups. I’m not thrilled with those results, but my goal in betting this market and baseball every day is never to get too high or too low and to stay the course throughout the marathon regular season.
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A big reason why these bets have become so popular is that your wager only spans six outs, but it also means one mistake in either direction usually is the difference between winning or losing. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, June 30th.
All odds via DraftKings
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
This game has the highest total on the board today for any game not being played at Coors Field, so I feel confident we will see some early scoring. Seth Lugo is the definition of an average MLB starting pitcher with a 7-3 NRFI record and mediocre data to back it up. His fastball is in the bottom half of the league in terms of velocity, and besides his walk rate, none of his data really pops. He faces a Reds lineup that has posted a 49% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season (20-for-41) which is the second-highest in MLB behind the Braves.
Graham Ashcraft has posted a respectable 12-2 NRFI record this season despite some shaky data backing it up. What stands out the most about Ashcraft is his inability to pitch at home, with a 9.17 ERA at Great American Ballpark compared to 4.96 on the road. He is also trending in the wrong direction with a 16.03 ERA in June after 9.21 in May and 2.10 in April. The Padres lineup is still waiting for their breakout, but the first-inning data is solid with a 32% scoring rate on the road (12-for-38). I would expect San Diego to be ready from the jump here after getting swept in Pittsburgh earlier this week.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Seth Lugo vs:
TJ Friedl (1-for-3)
Matt McLain (never faced)
Jonathan India (1-for-5)
Graham Ashcraft vs:
Ha-Seong Kim (1-for-2)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (0-for-2)
Juan Soto (2-for-6)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-150)
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
This game features one of the best matchups on the board today. Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched in eight days since he left his start early against the Royals with back tightness. The lefty has posted a 14-2 NRFI record this season with just a .182 batting average against in the first inning. Walks are the biggest issue, but he draws a Mariners lineup that is bottom five in BB-rate and wRC+ against LHP in the first inning this season.
Rookie Bryce Miller takes the ball for Seattle getting his first look at this potent Rays lineup. Tampa is much better at home however, as their first-inning scoring rate drops from 43% at Tropicana Field (19-for-44) to 25% on the road (10-for-40). Miller has electric stuff with nearly a 35% strikeout rate in the opening frame this season. He has also not allowed an early run in five starts at T-Mobile Park. Please shop around for this number as I see prominent sportsbooks offer between -120 and -130 for this bet.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Shane McClanahan vs:
J.P. Crawford (2-for-6)
Julio Rodriguez (0-for-2)
Ty France (1-for-4)
Bryce Miller vs:
Yandy Diaz (never faced)
Wander Franco (never faced)
Luke Raley (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)
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