Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, May 19th.
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(All odds via DraftKings)
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
The A’s have been one of the most predictable YRFI teams in MLB this season, going 8-0 when the odds are priced higher than -125, which they are today. Oakland is also 14-6 to the YRFI on the road, with a scoring rate well above average at 45% (9-for-20). The Astros have been equally adept at scoring early runs at home with a rate of 40.9% (9-for-22) and they will also welcome back Jose Altuve to the lineup tonight, who returns after missing the first 43 games of the season with a thumb injury.
Neither pitching matchup is overpowering. The A’s send Ken Waldichuk to the bump, who surprisingly has posted a 7-1 NRFI record this season despite posting an xFIP that’s nearly double his actual FIP in the first inning (4.74 to 2.55). Houston’s Brandon Bielak will only be making his third career start, he’s 2-0 to the NRFI so far but has a 5.41 xFIP in those two outings. The one advantage both pitchers have is limited exposure to the opposing lineup. Waldichuk has just 10 career plate appearances against the Astros and Bielak just three against the Athletics, which is always advantage NRFI. Regardless, I still feel confident one of these lineups will break through in the opening frame.
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants
Another trend I’ve examined very closely based on odds has been the Marlins NRFI, which is 20-4 when priced at -125 or higher. That is the case today as Miami sends ace and reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to the hill, who has a perfect 8-0 NRFI record so far this season. Anthony DeSclafani has been equally effective in the opening frame this season with a 6-2 NRFI record and solid 2.40 xFIP.
The Miami lineup has been one of the worst in baseball at generating early offense this season with just a 15.7% first inning scoring rate in road games (3-for-19). Overall they’ve failed to score in seven straight, a slump which has coincided with the loss of their leadoff hitter, Jazz Chisholm Jr., who was placed on the IL with turf toe earlier this week. The Giants lineup has also been below average at home this season, with a first inning scoring rate of just 30.4% (7-for-23).
Bet: No Run First Inning (-140)
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