Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on last Sunday’s best bets but came out slightly ahead because of the juice associated with the NRFI in Denver which cashed at +135. Unfortunately the Rays and Guardians also saw a clean opening frame as the YRFI lost in Cleveland. So far this month I’ve seen a slight uptick in scoring with the YRFI cashing at nearly a 55% rate (51-for-93). It’s probably too small a sample to make any definitive conclusions, but my guess is we see more YRFI than NRFI down the stretch and I will lean heavily in that direction when recommending plays. Onward we go.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, September 8th. I recommend 2 units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 55-53 (50.9%) -9.76u -4.1% ROI
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees
Colin Rea is just 13-7 (65%) to the NRFI this season and his recent data is alarming with an 8.64 ERA since August 1st, the highest mark of any starting pitcher on the board today. The Yankees lineup has been below league average at home with a 30.5% scoring rate (22-for-52) but they’ve gotten a recent spark from call-up Jasson Dominquez who has slugged 3 homers in his first five games.
Luis Severino is 10-7 (58%) to the NRFI this season with a 5.20 ERA and seven home runs allowed over his last six starts. The Brewers offense has performed above the league average on the road with a 29.5% (21-for-71) scoring rate in the first inning. They’ve also done an exceptional job performing in the clutch, posting the 5th highest first-inning batting average with runners in scoring position.
I was able to find -110 in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -120 but not at the absurd -135 price being offered by Draftkings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Colin Rea vs.:
DJ LeMahieu (3-for-5, 2B)
Aaron Judge (never faced)
Jasson Dominguez (never faced)
Gleyber Torres (never faced)
Giancarlo Stanton (never faced)
Luis Severino vs.:
Christian Yelich (never faced)
William Contreras (never faced)
Carlos Santana (4-for-19, 2B, 2 HRs, 5 Ks, BB)
Sal Frelick (never faced)
Willy Adames (1-for-7, 3 Ks, BB)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-135)
San Diego Padres at Houston Astros
Blake Snell is probably going to win the NL Cy Young, but if the award was based solely on performance in the first inning, he would likely not be considered. Snell is barely league average with a 20-8 (71.4%) NRFI record this season. What’s more perplexing is Snell’s 6.0 K/9 in the first inning since August 1st, a significant dropoff from his 12.3 mark in all other innings combined. Maybe it’s jitters, maybe it’s random, but for some reason his stuff hasn’t fully translated early in games. The Astros certainly have the lineup to take advantage of any misstep with an above average 33.3% (23-for-69) scoring rate at home this season.
Hunter Brown is 18-7 (72%) to the NRFI record this season which is basically league average. He’s been knocked around lately with a .373 BABIP and 2.1 HR/9 allowed since August 1st, up from .333 and 1.1 the first four months of the season. The Padres lineup has been solid on the road with a 33.3% (22-for-66) scoring rate and is in great recent form with the highest first-inning OPS so far this month.
I was able to find -105 in the market and would feel comfortable playing this up to -110 but not at the -120 price being offered by Draftkings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Blake Snell vs.:
Jose Altuve (8-for-21, 2B, 4 HRs, 2 Ks, 2 BBs)
Jeremy Pena (never faced)
Yordan Alvarez (1-for-4, 2 Ks)
Alex Bregman (7-for-20, 2B, 2 HRs, 3 Ks, 5 BBs)
Kyle Tucker (1-for-6, HR)
Hunter Brown vs.:
Ha-Seong Kim (never faced)
Fernando Tatis Jr. (never faced)
Juan Soto (never faced)
Manny Machado (never faced)
Xander Bogaerts (never faced)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-120)
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