Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The first day back from the All-Star break was a rough one as I went 0-2 on my best bets. Overall, the NRFI went 9-5, which makes sense if you consider the hitters have not faced live pitching in nearly a week and most of the starting pitchers were on their regular throw days. Sadly, one of the few YRFIs came in Seattle, where home runs continued to be a bugaboo for Luis Castillo, as he gave up a 2-strike, 2-out dinger to Kerry Carpenter in the top of the first. Tough break, but onward we go.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, July 15th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line.
Season Record: 33-29 (53.2%) -3.51u -3.0% ROI
Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles
My biggest frustration last night came from a bet that I didn’t make. The Marlins lineup got back to doing what they did best before the All-Star break, which was failing to score a run in the first inning and cashing the NRFI. Today, Miami draws Kyle Gibson, who is having a relatively mediocre overall season with a subpar 11-8 NRFI record and just 4-4 at home. On the positive side, he’s only allowing 0.82 HRs per nine innings, down from 1.29 last season and his lowest rate since 2014.
Braxton Garrett has put up solid numbers in the opening frame with a 13-4 overall NRFI record and 8-1 on the road. His first inning xFIP of 2.03 is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the board today. The young Orioles lineup will basically be getting their first look at the southpaw, with only five career plate appearances against, all from players not projected to be in the lineup. Baltimore also has the fifth-lowest wRC+ in the first inning against lefties this season.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Braxton Garrett vs.:
Gunnar Henderson (never faced)
Adley Rutschman (never faced)
Anthony Santander (never faced)
Kyle Gibson vs.:
Luis Arraez (never faced)
Jorge Soler (2-for-21, 2 HRs, 11 Ks, 6 BBs)
Bryan De La Cruz (0-for-8)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
This game landed 1-0 yesterday despite the total hovering around 10. Perhaps both lineups were shaking off some All-Star rust, or maybe the impact this series will have on the NL Central standings created uneasiness at the plate. Today, I’m betting on the former and not the latter, especially considering how impressive the Reds’ offense has been at home this season. The good news for Cincinnati today is they aren’t facing Corbin Burnes, who was in Cy Young form last night. Instead, they draw Freddy Peralta, who has posted an impressive 14-3 NRFI record this season. However, that mark is just 5-3 on the road, where his overall ERA jumps to 5.83 compared to 3.88 at home.
Andrew Abbott has posted a 5-2 NRFI record through his first seven career starts for the Reds. He just faced this Brewers lineup on the Friday before the All-Star break, and it did not go well, allowing a season-high six earned runs, including two in the first inning. After starting his career with three consecutive scoreless outings, Abbott has allowed 11 earned runs and six homers over his last four starts. The lefty has been tough on left-handed hitters, with a miniscule 0.50 FIP. That’s bad news for Christian Yelich, but the rest of the righty-heavy Brewers lineup has succeeded against Abbott in a limited sample.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Freddy Peralta vs.:
TJ Friedl (1-for-6, 2 Ks)
Matt McLain (never faced)
Jonathan India (1-for-8, 4 Ks)
Andrew Abbott vs.:
William Contreras (2-for-5, K)
Christian Yelich (0-for-6, 4 Ks)
Willy Adames (2-for-3, HR)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
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