Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
The 2023 MLB season is underway and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. I’m tackling YRFI and NRFI markets here, where you only have to sweat out your bet for about 15 minutes. These markets have increased in popularity over the last couple of years, and I will do my best to find you the edge. You can track the results of my MLB wagers this season here. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Friday, June 2nd.
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All odds via DraftKings
Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins
I’ll go back to the well with this series after hitting on the NRFI yesterday at virtually the same price despite a more questionable pitching matchup, which is not an issue today. Logan Allen has been stellar in his rookie campaign and has not allowed a run in the first inning through his first seven starts. That includes a clean opening frame against this same Twins team back in early May. Minnesota’s lineup has also been subpar in the first inning this season with an overall scoring rate of 25.8% (15-for-58) and the second-lowest wRC+ against LHP.
Sonny Gray looks like an all-star. The righty has posted a career-low 1.94 ERA so far this season to go along with a stellar 11-1 NRFI record and 6-0 at Target Field. Ironically, his worst start of the season was against these same Guardians on the road in early May when he allowed three earned runs, but he still got through the first inning unscathed in that outing. Cleveland’s offense is pesky, especially at the top with Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. However, they have posted just a 23.3% scoring rate on the road (7-for-30) this season, below the 27% average for road teams.
Here’s how each pitcher has fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Logan Allen vs:
Donovan Solano (0-for-3)
Carlos Correa (0-for-3)
Alex Kirilloff (never faced)
Sonny Gray vs:
Steven Kwan (5-for-13)
Amed Rosario (6-for-19)
Jose Ramirez (8-for-37)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
LaMonte Wade Jr. ambushed Dean Kremer on the first pitch in the bottom of the first inning last night, ruining our NRFI sweep, but I’ll run it back again in San Francisco with an upgrade on the mound for Baltimore. Kyle Bradish has posted a perfect 9-0 NRFI record this season and has lowered his overall ERA a full run from last year’s rookie campaign (4.90 to 3.89). He also pitched to a 2.76 ERA in May compared to 6.14 in April, so the young righty is trending in a very positive direction. Bradish gets a completely fresh look at this Giants lineup, which is always advantageous to the NRFI.
Alex Cobb has posted an average 8-3 NRFI record this season, but he’s 4-0 at Oracle Park, which correlates to his significantly lower ERA at home than on the road (1.80 to 4.22). The top of the Orioles lineup doesn’t scare me away from Camden Yards, with just a 14.2% scoring rate this season (4-for-28). The analytics back that up, as Baltimore has the 6th lowest 1st inning wRC+ against RHP on the road.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Kyle Bradish vs:
LaMonte Wade Jr. (never faced)
J.D. Davis (never faced)
Mike Yastrzemski (never faced)
Alex Cobb vs:
Adam Frazier (0-for-3)
Adley Rutschman (never faced)
Anthony Santander (0-for-3)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-130)
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