Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 0-2 on Friday’s best bets, and each loss was excruciatingly painful. No need to recap. If you’re reading this, it probably means you’re a loyal follower and you know exactly how both games played out. But words are cheap, and this is a results-driven business. My results for this column have been painfully mediocre since we started this journey in May. I’ve made 116 selections and have won exactly the same amount as I’ve lost, which is ironic in this coin-flippers market, but in the betting world that record is very subpar and will never equate to a profit.
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The easy thing to do in this situation would be to close up shop and focus on football. But as I’ve stated in prior columns, I would never quit a marathon on the final mile. I believe in my process and have consistently beat the closing number with my wagers all season long. Even if I don’t turn a profit this campaign, I will take what I learned into the offseason, tweak my model, and be ready to roll come next April. But until then, onward we go into the abyss.
Keep reading to find out my best bets for Saturday, September 16th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 58-58 (50.0%) -15.16u -5.9% ROI
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Tyler Glasnow is 17-1 (94%) to the NRFI this season and 9-0 on the road with elite data across the board including a 41% strikeout rate in the first inning. He draws an Orioles lineup that is trending down with the lowest first-inning wRC+ this month. Overall Baltimore has recorded a 25% (37-for-147) scoring rate this season, slightly below league average.
Grayson Rodriguez is 16-4 (80%) to the NRFI this season which is above league average. He has not allowed a first-inning home run over his last seven starts and overall during that span he’s pitching to a 2.85 ERA. He draws the tougher side of this matchup with the Rays lineup percolating of late. Tampa has won the first two games of this crucial series and scored seven runs on 13 hits last night. Overall, this season they’ve recorded a 35% scoring rate (52-for-149) in the first inning, slightly above league average.
I was able to find -120 available and would feel comfortable playing this up to -125. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Tyler Glasnow vs.:
Gunnar Henderson (2-for-6, 2B, 3B, 2 Ks)
Adley Rutschman (1-for-5, 2 Ks, BB)
Anthony Santander (3-for-11, HR, 5 Ks)
Ryan O’Hearn (1-for-6, 3 Ks)
Austin Hays (2-for-9, HR, 3 Ks)
Grayson Rodriguez vs.:
Yandy Diaz (1-for-6, 2 Ks)
Brandon Lowe (0-for-1, K, BB)
Randy Arozarena (0-for-4, 3 Ks)
Isaac Paredes (1-fro-5)
Josh Lowe (0-for-1, K, BB)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
Kyle Hendricks is 13-8 (61.9%) to the NRFI this season which is below the league average. Nothing about his stuff will blow you away, and he’s in the 1st percentile for fastball velocity amongst big league pitchers. Hendricks has posted 6.16 K/9 this season, the lowest mark since his rookie year in 2014. The Diamondbacks have recorded a 36% scoring rate in the first inning this season, which is above league average.
Zach Davies is 9-7 (56.3%) to the NRFI this season, well below the league average. Davies is a carbon copy of Hendricks, a soft-tossing righty who doesn’t have put-away stuff. Davies is in the 5th percentile for fastball velocity and the 7th percentile for chase rate amongst big league pitchers. The Cubs have recorded a 29% scoring rate in the first inning this season, which is basically on par with league average.
I was able to find -110 available and would feel comfortable playing this up to -115, but not at the -125 price being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Kyle Hendricks vs.:
Corbin Carroll (0-for-3, K)
Ketel Marte (2-for-11, 4 Ks, BB)
Tommy Pham (9-for-25, 2B, 2 HRs, 5 Ks, BB)
Christian Walker (4-for-15, 2B, K, 2 BBs)
Alek Thomas (3-for-7, 2 2Bs, K)
Zach Davies vs.:
Mike Tauchman (1-for-1, BB)
Nico Hoerner (never faced)
Ian Happ (1-for-11, 5 Ks, 5 BBs)
Cody Bellinger (7-for-23, 2B, 2 HRs, 6 Ks, 2 BBs)
Dansby Swanson (2-for-6, HR, K)
Bet: Yes Run First Inning (-125)
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