Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 again with my best bets yesterday which moved my record to 28-24 on VSIN writeups this season. Both games were happening simultaneously, which made for a fun sweat. I cashed the Astros/Rangers NRFI almost seconds before Ronald Acuna Jr. went yard to send the Marlins/Braves NRFI down in flames. The moral of the story is don’t fade the Atlanta offense right now which appears to be the hottest in baseball.
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Hopefully, we can end the week on a high note. Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, July 2nd. I recommend two units for each wager.
All odds via DraftKings
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
This is the early game on Sunday so get your bets in as soon as you read this! The Twins posted a 19-8 NRFI record in June and followed it up with an NRFI in yesterday’s game to kick off July. Their offense has only scored five times in the first inning since June 1st. Today they face Cole Irvin, who is nothing to write home about with a 3-3 NRFI record. However, the Twins have the lowest wRC+ in the first inning against lefties this season. Irvin has also not allowed an early home run in six starts this season.
I love the other side of the matchup with Sonny Gray, who is 15-2 to the NRFI this season and has also not allowed a home run in the first inning. Baltimore’s lineup has some pop at the top, but they’ve only scored once in the first inning during their current eight-game homestand.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Sonny Gray vs:
Gunnar Henderson (never faced)
Adley Rutschman (never faced)
Anthony Santander (1-for-5, HR)
Cole Irvin vs:
Carlos Correa (3-for-10, HR)
Donovan Solano (0-for-3)
Byron Buxton (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-105)
New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals
This is a good situational spot as these teams will play a day game after a doubleheader last night. I don’t hate the pitching matchup either. Gerrit Cole has posted a 13-4 NRFI record this season and 6-0 on the road. He definitely has the tougher draw of the two lineups against St. Louis and their 41% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season, which is top five in the league.
Jordan Montgomery will face his former team which has been a shell of their former selves on offense in the absence of Aaron Judge. The Bombers posted a 14-9 NRFI record in June and scored only six times in the first inning all month, most of it without their star slugger in the lineup. Montgomery’s numbers in the opening frame have been mediocre at best this season with a 10-6 NRFI record and just 4-4 at home. However, I think fatigue plays a factor here in the early going after these teams played 18 innings yesterday.
Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Jordan Montgomery vs:
Brendan Donovan (never faced)
Paul Goldschmidt (3-for-20, HR)
Lars Nootbaar (never faced)
Gerrit Cole vs:
DJ LeMahieu (0-for-2)
Gleyber Torres (0-for-2)
Giancarlo Stanton (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-130)
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