Best Bets on Today’s MLB YRFI and NRFI Markets
I went 1-1 on Saturday’s best bets with the NRFI cashing at Wrigley but YRFI losing in Atlanta. I’m not at all deterred by the continued up-and-down nature of these results. I felt like I made two solid wagers yesterday that beat the market. If Ronald Acuna Jr. doesn’t get thrown out trying to steal second after a leadoff walk, we probably get a run and go 2-0 instead of 1-1, but the margins are literally that thin with this market. The good news is all we need is two wins today to finish the week in positive territory.
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Keep reading to find out my best bets for Sunday, September 10th. I recommend two units for each. All odds are via DraftKings but be sure to shop around for the best line as prices vary dramatically in this market.
Best Bets Season Record: 57-55 (50.9%) -10.46u -4.3% ROI
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
Cole Ragans is 8-0 (100%) to the NRFI this season and is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now with a miniscule 1.48 ERA over his last seven starts. Ragans will face a Blue Jays lineup that has recorded a 23.9% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season which is well below league average and one of the lowest rates in all of baseball. They’ve been hitting lefties better lately, but this will be their first look at Ragans, who is not your average lefty.
Jose Berrios is 23-5 (82.1%) to the NRFI this season and 10-2 at home. He draws a Royals lineup that has struggled on the road with just a 21.1% scoring rate in the first inning, well below league average.
I was able to find -115 available and would play this up to -125. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Cole Ragans vs.:
George Springer (never faced)
Bo Bichette (never faced)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (never faced)
Davis Schneider (never faced)
Whit Merrifield (never faced)
Jose Berrios vs.:
Maikel Garcia (never faced)
Bobby Witt Jr. (2-for-5, BB)
Salvador Perez (7-for-37, 3 2Bs, 8 Ks, BB)
MJ Melendez (1-for-3, 2B, 2 Ks)
Nelson Velazquez (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-120)
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
Bryce Miller is 18-3 (85.7%) to the NRFI this season with elite data across the board. All three of his NRFI setbacks this season have come on the road, which is of slight concern. The Rays have recorded a 36.5% scoring rate in the first inning at home this season which is slightly above league average. However they have only hit one home run off a right-handed pitcher in the opening frame since August 1st, a power outage spanning 106 plate appearances.
Zach Eflin is 21-6 (77.8%) to the NRFI this season and 13-3 at home. Eflin’s 3.28 xFIP since August 1st is the second-lowest of any pitcher starting today. The Mariners offense has posted a 27% scoring rate in the first inning on the road this season, on par with the league average. They were able to push across a run in yesterday’s opening frame for just the second time on their current nine-game homestand.
I was able to find -115 and would feel comfortable playing this up to -125, but not at the -135 price currently being offered by DraftKings at the time of publication. Here’s how the starting pitchers have fared against the projected top of each lineup:
Bryce Miller vs.:
Yandy Diaz (0-for-2, 2 Ks)
Brandon Lowe (never faced)
Randy Arozarena (1-for-2, HR, K)
Josh Lowe (0-for-1, K)
Isaac Paredes (0-for-1)
Zach Eflin vs.:
JP Crawford (never faced)
Julio Rodriguez (never faced)
Cal Raleigh (never faced)
Teoscar Hernandez (2-for-5, 2 Ks, BB)
Dominic Canzone (never faced)
Bet: No Run First Inning (-135)
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