Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Sao Paolo, Brazil, is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts, each of which features a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.
It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo, so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and, as importantly, some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian locals, win, lose, or draw.
The preliminary card starts at 3 p.m. PT, with the main card dropping at 6 p.m.
In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Anshul Jubli before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.
Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u
Breeden got us back into the black, but we need to grind positive profit, as only six fight cards remain in 2023.
Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390
Heavyweight (265 pounds) main event
Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.
Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing by KO’ing Brazilian athlete Marcos Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power. He has profuse punching and kicking power as he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.
Though a purple belt in BJJ, Lewis has little to no wrestling chops. He’s fundamentally flawed on the ground, especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing, especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.
In Brazilian Almeida, we have an athlete who has competed at 205 pounds and was dominant when competing there.
At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235 pounds. While he is used to competing against the larger, lumbering heavyweights in the division, on Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he, who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.
In his last several bouts, Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.
The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming, then finds a way to rain damage from the top and, more than likely, submit him.
The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300, which is logical as Almeida works quickly and Lewis’ only path to success revolves around his singular path of success, which is an early uppercut or flying knee KO.
Pick: Pass
Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460
Welterweight (170 pounds) co-main event
These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.
In this co-main event, we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother, and the Bonfim with more championship potential than his older brother Ismail, who is also on this main card and also quite dangerous.
Gabe Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced, and in the UFC, he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.
In this bout, Bonfim steps up in class, though the market does not appear to believe such.
In Nicholas Dalby, we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok. Dalby, a Dane, is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.
In his second stint in the UFC, Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark, and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight, though Dalby’s fights all go to decision, which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.
Dalby is 38, which makes him 12 years older than Bonfim. He’s also two inches. shorter than the Brazilian, though Dalby does own a two-inch reach advantage.
Dalby has been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.
Once this fight begins, our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim, who will come at him with everything he has, for Bonfim has seen the third round only once since 2018.
It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145
Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early, and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to earn his victory on Saturday.
Pick: Over 1.5 Rds. +120
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.
Enjoy the fights, and thank you for reading!
